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Why the EU ETS needs reforming: an empirical analysis of the impact on company investments

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  • Åsa L�fgren
  • Markus Wr�ke
  • Tomas Hagberg
  • Susanna Roth

Abstract

The European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is so far the largest emissions trading system in the world. A rigorous ex post empirical analysis of the scheme is presented. The effect of the scheme on firms' investment decisions in carbon-reducing technologies is analysed by using detailed firm-level data from Swedish industry. Based on difference-in-difference estimation as well as a before-after difference estimation, the results reveal that the EU ETS has not had a significant effect on firms' decisions to invest in carbon-mitigating technologies. However, although the EU ETS appears to have no direct effect on investments, it is too early to dismiss the system. Consideration is given to how the EU ETS can realize its potential to become an effective tool in the EU climate and energy policy portfolio. Policy relevance A thorough analysis and discussion considers the ability of the EU ETS to create strong incentives for investment in carbon-reducing measures. The empirical results (using detailed firm-level data from Swedish industry) add to earlier findings in the literature showing the limitations of the EU ETS to influence investments and innovation. This is a critical and pressing issue for policy makers. With even modest reforms such as the back-loading of allowances meeting strong resistance from some Member States, the future of the EU ETS is rightly put in question. A key question is whether the EU ETS can and should be reformed in a way so that it can have a real impact on investments, or whether other policy instruments should take an increasing role for long-term transformation of the energy system.

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  • Åsa L�fgren & Markus Wr�ke & Tomas Hagberg & Susanna Roth, 2014. "Why the EU ETS needs reforming: an empirical analysis of the impact on company investments," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 537-558, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:14:y:2014:i:5:p:537-558
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.864800
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    3. Johan Lilliestam & Anthony Patt & Germán Bersalli, 2022. "On the quality of emission reductions: observed effects of carbon pricing on investments, innovation, and operational shifts. A response to van den Bergh and Savin (2021)," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 733-758, November.
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    6. De Ponti, Pietro & Romagnoli, Matteo, 2022. "Financial implications of the EU Emission Trading System: an analysis of wavelet coherence and volatility spillovers," FEEM Working Papers 323874, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Yao, Shiyue & Yu, Xueying & Yan, Sen & Wen, Shiyan, 2021. "Heterogeneous emission trading schemes and green innovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. Sato, Misato & Rafaty, Ryan & Calel, Raphael & Grubb, Michael, 2022. "Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Mo, Jian-Lei & Agnolucci, Paolo & Jiang, Mao-Rong & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of Chinese carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on low carbon energy (LCE) investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 271-283.
    10. Sadayuki, Taisuke & Arimura, Toshi H., 2021. "Do regional emission trading schemes lead to carbon leakage within firms? Evidence from Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Teixidó, Jordi & Verde, Stefano F. & Nicolli, Francesco, 2019. "The impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on low-carbon technological change: The empirical evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Tang, Ling & Wang, Haohan & Li, Ling & Yang, Kaitong & Mi, Zhifu, 2020. "Quantitative models in emission trading system research: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Aliénor Cameron & Marc Baudry, 2023. "The case for carbon leakage and border adjustments: where do economists stand?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 435-469, July.
    14. Pietro De Ponti & Matteo Romagnoli, 2022. "Financial implications of the EU Emission Trading System: an analysis of wavelet coherence and volatility spillovers," Working Papers 2022.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Jarmila Zimmermannová, 2015. "Pilot Analysis of the Behaviour of Companies Within the 3rd Trading Period of the EU ETS in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(6), pages 2213-2220.
    16. Kasper Vrolijk & Misato Sato, 2023. "Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Carbon Pricing," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 213-248.
    17. Qian Wang & Cuiyun Gao & Shuanping Dai, 2019. "Effect of the Emissions Trading Scheme on CO 2 Abatement in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, February.
    18. Vrolijk, Kasper & Sato, Misato, 2023. "Quasi-experimental evidence on carbon pricing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118404, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Mandaroux, Rahel & Schindelhauer, Kai & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2023. "How to reinforce the effectiveness of the EU emissions trading system in stimulating low-carbon technological change? Taking stock and future directions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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