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Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Jordan
  • Tim Rayner
  • Heike Schroeder
  • Neil Adger
  • Kevin Anderson
  • Alice Bows
  • Corinne Le Qu�r�
  • Manoj Joshi
  • Sarah Mander
  • Nem Vaughan
  • Lorraine Whitmarsh

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Jordan & Tim Rayner & Heike Schroeder & Neil Adger & Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows & Corinne Le Qu�r� & Manoj Joshi & Sarah Mander & Nem Vaughan & Lorraine Whitmarsh, 2013. "Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 751-769, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:13:y:2013:i:6:p:751-769
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2013.835705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, October.
    2. Prins, Gwyn & Galiana, Isabel & Green, Christopher & Grundmann, Reiner & Korhola, Atte & Laird, Frank & Nordhaus, Ted & Pielke Jnr, Roger & Rayner, Steve & Sarewitz, Daniel & Shellenberger, Michael & , 2010. "The Hartwell Paper: a new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 27939, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, October.
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    1. Piero Morseletto & Frank Biermann & Philipp Pattberg, 2017. "Governing by targets: reductio ad unum and evolution of the two-degree climate target," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 655-676, October.
    2. Liu, Guangqiang & Zeng, Qing & Lei, Juan, 2022. "Dynamic risks from climate policy uncertainty: A case study for the natural gas market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Meifen Wu & Ruyin Long & Shuhan Yang & Xinru Wang & Hong Chen, 2022. "Evolution of the Knowledge Mapping of Climate Change Communication Research: Basic Status, Research Hotspots, and Prospects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Manav Khanna & Natalia Marzia Gusmerotti & Marco Frey, 2022. "The Relevance of the Circular Economy for Climate Change: An Exploration through the Theory of Change Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Miriam Dunn & Mark D. Rounsevell & Henrik Carlsen & Adis Dzebo & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Joseph Hagg, 2017. "To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 181-195, March.
    6. Joan David Tàbara & Francesc Cots & Simona Pedde & Katharina Hölscher & Kasper Kok & Anastasia Lovanova & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Niki Frantzeskaki & John Etherington, 2018. "Exploring Institutional Transformations to Address High-End Climate Change in Iberia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, January.
    7. Sharmina, Maria, 2017. "Low-carbon scenarios for Russia's energy system: A participative backcasting approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 303-315.
    8. Zheng, Jiali & Duan, Hongbo & Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Shouyang & Gao, Ji & Jiang, Kejun & Gao, Shuo, 2021. "Limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C from 2 °C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Jorge E. Viñuales & Joanna Depledge & David M. Reiner & Emma Lees, 2017. "Climate policy after the Paris 2015 climate conference," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-8, January.
    10. Wu, Rong & Wang, Jieyu & Wang, Shaojian & Feng, Kuishuang, 2021. "The drivers of declining CO2 emissions trends in developed nations using an extended STIRPAT model: A historical and prospective analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Frans Sengers & Bruno Turnheim & Frans Berkhout, 2021. "Beyond experiments: Embedding outcomes in climate governance," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 39(6), pages 1148-1171, September.
    12. Shaw, Christopher & Nerlich, Brigitte, 2015. "Metaphor as a mechanism of global climate change governance: A study of international policies, 1992–2012," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 34-40.
    13. W. P. Pauw & Richard J. T. Klein & Kennedy Mbeva & Adis Dzebo & Davide Cassanmagnago & Anna Rudloff, 2018. "Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 23-29, March.

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