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Low-carbon scenarios for Russia's energy system: A participative backcasting approach

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  • Sharmina, Maria

Abstract

Despite the high profile of climate change in scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has thus far failed to commit to an emission reduction target based on the latest science. Given Russia is a key supplier of fossil fuels, a major greenhouse gas emitter, and climate impacts on its vast territory likely to have far-reaching consequences, this contextual research shows that the country's current policies fall woefully short of what is required to implement the Paris Agreement. To support Russia in developing informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate energy policies, this paper presents low-carbon emission trajectories commensurate with the 2°C goal, using stakeholder-informed backcasting. The results illustrate that even if Russia's CO2 emissions peak in 2017, a reduction rate of at least 9% per year between 2020 and 2030 is required to meet a 2°C budget constraint. These sustained rates are in excess of anything achieved globally or, indeed, deemed possible within most studies. Such emission reductions would involve unprecedented material changes to Russia's energy system, including both rapidly cutting energy demand and building extensive low-carbon infrastructures. Nevertheless, failure to transform Russia's existing policies will likely have global repercussions for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals.

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  • Sharmina, Maria, 2017. "Low-carbon scenarios for Russia's energy system: A participative backcasting approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 303-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:104:y:2017:i:c:p:303-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Golub, Alexander (Голуб, Александр), 2018. "Methodological Issues of Assessing Investment Risks in Projects Weakening the Dependence of the Russian Economy on Natural Resources and Providing a Transition to Low-Carbon Development [Методологи," Working Papers 071802, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Karatayev, Marat & Hall, Stephen, 2020. "Establishing and comparing energy security trends in resource-rich exporting nations (Russia and the Caspian Sea region)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Sampene, Agyemang Kwasi & Li, Cai & Wiredu, John, 2024. "An outlook at the switch to renewable energy in emerging economies: The beneficial effect of technological innovation and green finance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. McGookin, Connor & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Byrne, Edmond, 2021. "Participatory methods in energy system modelling and planning – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Zhao, Jing & Duan, Yaoqi & Liu, Xiaojuan, 2019. "Study on the policy of replacing coal-fired boilers with gas-fired boilers for central heating based on the 3E system and the TOPSIS method: A case in Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    7. Ivan Oropeza-Perez & Astrid H Petzold-Rodriguez, 2021. "Different Scenarios for the National Transmission Grid, Considering the Extensive Use of On-Site Renewable Energy in the Mexican Housing Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Kilinc-Ata, Nurcan & Proskuryakova, Liliana N., 2023. "Empirical analysis of the Russian power industry's transition to sustainability," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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