IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjerxx/v19y2000i2p165-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Thompson
  • Sotiris Tsolacos

Abstract

This article is the winner of the Industrial Real Estate manuscript prize (sponsored by the Society of Industrial and Office REALTORs) presented at the 1999 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting.A three-equation simultaneous system is used to model the industrial property market in Great Britain. Strong relationships are found between new industrial building supply and both real rents and construction costs, and between rents, industrial floorspace availability and the gross domestic product. The performance of ex post simulations of new building supply, rents and floorspace availability are satisfactory with the exception of rent simulations post 1993. The central forecast of the model indicates a quiet market until 2001 (lower level of new supply, constant levels of real rents and increasing availability of industrial space) but a more active market in 2002 and 2003. This study suggests that simultaneous equation models can prove useful alternative tools in analyzing the industrial property market and generating forecasts both at the aggregate and more localized level of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:19:y:2000:i:2:p:165-188
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2000.12091014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10835547.2000.12091014
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10835547.2000.12091014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547, December.
    2. John Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "A Simultaneous Model and Empirical Test of the Demand and Supply of Retail Space," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14.
    3. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    4. Hoag, James W, 1980. "Towards Indices of Real Estate Value and Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 569-580, May.
    5. Brent W. Ambrose, 1990. "An Analysis of the Factors Affecting Light Industrial Property Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(3), pages 355-370.
    6. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    7. Richard J. Buttimer, Jr. & Ronald C. Rutherford & Ron Witten, 1997. "Industrial Warehouse Rent Determinants in the Dallas/Fort Worth Area," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 47-56.
    8. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 151-167, January.
    9. Nakamura, Alice & Nakamura, Masao, 1981. "On the Relationships among Several Specification Error Tests Presented by Durbin, Wu, and Hausman," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1583-1588, November.
    10. Wheaton, William C & Torto, Raymond G & Evans, Peter, 1997. "The Cyclic Behavior of the Greater London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 77-92, July.
    11. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 2. Empirical Results," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(4), pages 493-520, April.
    12. William L. Attebery & Ronald C. Rutherford & Mark E. Eakin, 1993. "Industrial Real Estate Prices and Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 377-386.
    13. John L. Kling & Thomas E. McCue, 1991. "Stylized Facts About Industrial Property Construction," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 293-304.
    14. Wheaton William C. & Torto Raymond G., 1994. "Office Rent Indices and Their Behavior over Time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 121-139, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey Meen & Kenneth Gibb & Daniel Mackay & Michael White, 2001. "On The Interrelationship Between Housing and Industrial Construction," ERES eres2001_232, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Kim Hin David Ho & Satyanarain Rengarajan, 2017. "Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 417-450.
    3. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "Industrial Land Values — A Guide to Future Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 55-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 151-167, January.
    2. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "Industrial Land Values — A Guide to Future Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 55-76.
    3. Kim Hin David Ho & Satyanarain Rengarajan, 2017. "Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 417-450.
    4. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2013. "On Demand Analysis and Dynamics: A Benefit Function Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149683, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. John Henneberry & Tony McGough & Fotis Mouzakis, 2005. "The Impact of Planning on Local Business Rents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 471-502, March.
    6. Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 197-218.
    7. Stefania Tonin & Margherita Turvani, 2011. "Environmental contamination and industrial real estate market: an application of hedonic price method in Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa10p511, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Thomas O. Jackson, 2002. "Environmental Contamination and Industrial Real Estate Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 179-200.
    9. Zia-Ur- Rahman, 2019. "Influence of Excessive Expenditure of the Government in Perspective of Interest Rate and Money Circulation Which in Turn Affects the Growing Process in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 120-129.
    10. Bel, K. & Paap, R., 2013. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    11. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sollis, Robert, 2011. "Spurious regression: A higher-order problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 141-143, May.
    13. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    14. Marc Lavoie & Gabriel Rodriguez & Mario Seccareccia, 2004. "Similitudes and Discrepancies in Post-Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-149.
    15. Colin C. Williams & Ioana Alexandra Horodnic, 2017. "Tackling Bogus Self-Employment: Some Lessons From Romania," Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship (JDE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Branstetter, Lee & Chatterjee, Chirantan & Higgins, Matthew J., 2022. "Generic competition and the incentives for early-stage pharmaceutical innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    17. Matthias Hartmann & Helmut Herwartz & Yabibal M. Walle, 2012. "Where enterprise leads, finance follows. In-sample and out-of-sample evidence on the causal relation between finance and growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 871-882.
    18. Checo, Ariadne & Mejía, Mariam & Ramírez, Francisco A., 2017. "El rol de los regímenes de precipitaciones sobre la dinámica de precios y actividad del sector agropecuario de la República Dominicana durante el período 2000-2016 [The role of rainfall regimes on ," MPRA Paper 80301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2006. "Monetary policy in a heterogeneous monetary union: the Australian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2487-2495.
    20. McGuirk, Anya M. & Spanos, Aris, 2004. "Revisiting Error Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions And Granger Causality," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20176, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:19:y:2000:i:2:p:165-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjer20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.