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An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate

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  • William C. Wheaton
  • Raymond G. Torto

Abstract

A recent inventory of industrial building in fifty‐two major metropolitan areas of the country indicates that most such space is either owner occupied or single tenant. This suggests that the production of industrial space may be modeled as a firm “investment” decision. Using the completion date of each inventoried building, we construct a time series of plant completions that moves similarly to some other national investment data. We are able to successfully estimate an “accelerator” type model of plant deliveries, driven by movements in employment and the after‐tax cost of corporate capital. Our model can be used to estimate a measure of excess plant capacity in the market, and historic values of this measure do move parallel to some recent industrial vacancy data.

Suggested Citation

  • William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:18:y:1990:i:4:p:530-547
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00536
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188, January.
    2. Nanda Nanthakumaran & Craig Watkins & Allison Orr, 2000. "Understanding Property Market Dynamics: Insights from Modelling the Supply-Side Adjustment Mechanism," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(4), pages 655-671, April.
    3. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    4. Huub Ploegmakers & Pascal Beckers & Erwin Van der Krabben, 2018. "The impact of planning intervention on business development: Evidence from the Netherlands," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(14), pages 3252-3273, November.
    5. Jacques Gordon & Paige MosbaughTodd Canter & Todd Canter, 1996. "Integrating Regional Economic Indicators with the Real Estate Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 469-501.
    6. Hilary Sigman, 2010. "Environmental Liability and Redevelopment of Old Industrial Land," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 289-306, May.
    7. Lindsey, Christopher & Mahmassani, Hani S. & Mullarkey, Matt & Nash, Terry & Rothberg, Steven, 2014. "Industrial space demand and freight transportation activity: exploring the connection," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 93-101.
    8. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
    9. Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough & Ha-Chin Yi & Jiro Yoshida, 2008. "On Demand: Cross-Country Evidence From Commercial Real Estate Asset Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37.
    10. Geoffrey Meen & Kenneth Gibb & Daniel Mackay & Michael White, 2001. "On The Interrelationship Between Housing and Industrial Construction," ERES eres2001_232, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Timothy Riddiough & Paul Childs & Steven Ott, 2001. "Noise, Real Estate Markets, and Options on Real Assets: Applications," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 01-06, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    12. Kim Hin David Ho & Satyanarain Rengarajan, 2017. "Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 417-450.
    13. John Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "The Supply Adjustment Process in Retail Space Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 297-308.
    14. Jorrit Sennema, 2010. "Industrial Property Analysis from an Investor's Perspective: The Case of Orange County, California," NEURUS papers neurusp145, NEURUS - Network of European and US Regional and Urban Studies.
    15. Jean-Jacques Grannelle, 1996. "Le marché des bureaux. Une revue des modèles économétriques," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 59(1), pages 167-211.
    16. Nafeesa Yunus, 2013. "Dynamic interactions among property types," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 135-159, March.

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