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Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc

Abstract

We use the Kalman filter to estimate the structure of the secret currency basket of the renminbi based on daily data between 2005 and 2009. The currency weights of selected currencies are modeled as stochastic processes (random walks). The official announcement of the new exchange rate regime in July 2005 with the introduction of a secret currency basket was followed by a smooth appreciation against the US dollar. Other currencies did not play a major role. We show that the US dollar again received a higher weight in the Chinese exchange rate policy already before the financial crisis of 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009," CESifo Working Paper Series 3147, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3147
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Chen & Fang, Ying & Niu, Linlin, 2022. "Changing anchor of the renminbi: A Bayesian learning approach to the decade-long transition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Zhuo Tan & Shenggang Yang, 2012. "Neutralization in China: evidence from the balance sheet of the People’s Bank of China," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 25-31, March.
    4. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Fang, Ying & Huang, Shicheng & Niu, Linlin, 2012. "De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies: The rising weights," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Martin Siddiqui, 2015. "Exchange Rate Policy in China after the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-varying Exchange Rate Basket," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 608-623, August.
    7. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate regime; Kalman filter; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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