IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/revpoe/v36y2024i5p1876-1893.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Components of Autonomous Demand Growth and Financial Feedbacks: Implications for Growth Drivers and Growth Regime Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Woodgate
  • Eckhard Hein
  • Ricardo Summa

Abstract

This paper presents a simple closed-economy model that is driven by the growth of two autonomous components of demand, namely government spending and rentiers’ consumption out of interest income. Using this model, it seeks to make two contributions. First, by focusing on the financial dynamics that arise from debt-financed government spending, we show that an underlying stock-flow interaction provides an endogenous mechanism which, under certain conditions, aligns the two autonomous growth rates in the long run. Hence, an economy can be driven by two autonomous components of demand, without one dominating the other in the long-run nor without policy changes being required to align the two growth drivers. Second, we prove that if two autonomous demand components are dynamically interdependent, then the relative size of their growth contributions may be misleading as a guide to classify growth regimes, both in the long-run equilibrium as well as during the traverse towards this equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that the relative growth contributions are economic policy contingent. We thus argue that interdependencies between autonomous growth components arising from financial stock-flow interactions should not be ignored in Sraffian supermultiplier growth decomposition exercises that aim to identify underlying growth drivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Woodgate & Eckhard Hein & Ricardo Summa, 2024. "Components of Autonomous Demand Growth and Financial Feedbacks: Implications for Growth Drivers and Growth Regime Analysis," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 1876-1893, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:36:y:2024:i:5:p:1876-1893
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2023.2269369
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09538259.2023.2269369
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09538259.2023.2269369?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckhard Hein & Ryan Woodgate, 2021. "Stability issues in Kaleckian models driven by autonomous demand growth—Harrodian instability and debt dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 388-404, May.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    3. Brett Fiebiger, 2018. "Semi-autonomous household expenditures as the causa causans of postwar US business cycles: the stability and instability of Luxemburg-type external markets [Cycles and trends in US net borrowing fl," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 155-175.
    4. Guilherme Haluska & Julia Braga & Ricardo Summa, 2021. "Growth, investment share and the stability of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model in the U.S. economy (1985–2017)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 345-364, May.
    5. Franklin Serrano & Fabio Freitas, 2017. "The Sraffian supermultiplier as an alternative closure for heterodox growth theory," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 70-91, April.
    6. Gabriel Vieira Mandarino & Claudio H. Dos Santos & Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva, 2020. "Workers' debt-financed consumption: a supermultiplier stock-flow consistent model," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 339-364, July.
    7. Brett Fiebiger & Marc Lavoie, 2019. "Trend and business cycles with external markets: Non‐capacity generating semi‐autonomous expenditures and effective demand," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 247-262, May.
    8. Sergio Cesaratto & Stefano di Bucchianico, 2020. "Endogenous money and the theory of long-period effective demand," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 1-38, June.
    9. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Eckhard Hein, 2023. "Macroeconomics after Kalecki and Keynes," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 21764.
    11. Fabio Freitas & Franklin Serrano, 2015. "Growth Rate and Level Effects, the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 258-281, July.
    12. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Initial and Final Finance in the Monetary Circuit and the Theory of Effective Demand," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 228-258, May.
    13. Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 586-598.
    14. Nikolas Passos & Guilherme Spinato Morlin, 2022. "Growth models and comparative political economy in Latin America," Department of Economics University of Siena 891, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Fabio Freitas, 2020. "A baseline supermultiplier model for the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 313-338, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Eckhard Hein & Valeria Jimenez, 2022. "The macroeconomic implications of zero growth: a post-Keynesian approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 41-60, April.
    3. Pedrosa, Ítalo & Brochier, Lídia & Freitas, Fabio, 2023. "Debt hierarchy: Autonomous demand composition, growth and indebtedness in a Supermultiplier model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Allain, Olivier, 2022. "A supermultiplier model with two non-capacity-generating semi-autonomous demand components," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-103.
    5. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Eckhard Hein & Ryan Woodgate, 2021. "Stability issues in Kaleckian models driven by autonomous demand growth—Harrodian instability and debt dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 388-404, May.
    7. Stephen Thompson, 2022. "“The total movement of this disorder is its order”: Investment and utilization dynamics in long‐run disequilibrium," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 638-682, May.
    8. Guilherme Spinato Morlin & Nikolas Passos & Riccardo Pariboni, 2024. "Growth Theory and the Growth Model Perspective: Insights from the Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 1130-1155, July.
    9. Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 586-598.
    10. Joana David Avritzer, 2022. "Debt-led growth and its financial fragility: An investigation into the dynamics of a supermultiplier model," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(302), pages 241-262.
    11. Emboava Vaz, João, 2024. "Impacts of US interest rates on growth, income distribution, and macroeconomic policy space in developing countries: A SFC supermultiplier model," IPE Working Papers 228/2024, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Adam Andrzej Zając & Michał Wielechowski & Krzysztof Smoleń & Dariusz Karaś, 2024. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Investment Decisions for Medium and Large Enterprises in Poland’s Manufacturing Sector," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 74-92.
    13. Jose A. Pérez-Montiel & Andreu Sansó & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2023. "Autonomous and induced demand in the United States: a long-run perspective," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    14. José A. Pérez‐Montiel & Carles Manera, 2022. "Is autonomous demand really autonomous in the United States? An asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 78-92, February.
    15. Campana, Juan Manuel & Emboava Vaz, João & Hein, Eckhard & Jungmann, Benjamin, 2022. "Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries," IPE Working Papers 197/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    16. Ettore Gallo & Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, 2023. "Investment, autonomous demand and long-run capacity utilization: an empirical test for the Euro Area," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 225-255, April.
    17. Hein, Eckhard, 2022. "Varieties of demand and growth regimes: Post-Keynesian foundations," IPE Working Papers 196/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Joana David Avritzer & Lídia Brochier, 2022. "Household credit-financed consumption and the debt service ratio: tackling endogenous autonomous demand in the Supermultiplier model," Working Papers PKWP2219, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Dvoskin, Ariel & Torchinsky Landau, Matías, 2023. "Income distribution and economic cycles in an open-economy supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 273-291.
    20. Guilherme Haluska & Julia Braga & Ricardo Summa, 2021. "Growth, investment share and the stability of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model in the U.S. economy (1985–2017)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 345-364, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:36:y:2024:i:5:p:1876-1893. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.