IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/recsxx/v9y2006i2p275-293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extremal Dependence in European Capital Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Viviana Fernandez

Abstract

For a sample of six countries with dirty/free float regimes over 1999–2002—the United States, Japan, the Czech Republic, Poland, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence on the euro. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to the euro, and vice versa. In addition, we investigate whether stock markets of European countries, outside the Euro zone, have exhibited extreme-value dependence on their exchange rates against the euro. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence either between paired exchange rates or between paired stock indices and exchanges rates. However, for asymptotic independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations. In addition, we find a weak association between large currency depreciations and declining stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Fernandez, 2006. "Extremal Dependence in European Capital Markets," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 275-293, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:9:y:2006:i:2:p:275-293
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2006.12040648
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/15140326.2006.12040648
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/15140326.2006.12040648?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "High-Frequency Contagion Between the Exchange Rates and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
    3. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    4. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
    5. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
    6. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    7. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    8. Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    10. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    11. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:179-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 232-266.
    13. Warren Bailey & Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung, 2000. "Depositary Receipts, Country Funds, and the Peso Crash: The Intraday Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2693-2717, December.
    14. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-199, July.
    15. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    16. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    17. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. "Stock markets and effective exchange rates in European countries: threshold cointegration findings," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-274, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Time-Scale Decomposition of Price Transmission in International Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 57-90, August.
    2. Jian Zhou, 2012. "Multiscale Analysis of International Linkages of REIT Returns and Volatilities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1062-1087, November.
    3. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Oikonomikou, Leoni Eleni, 2018. "Modeling financial market volatility in transition markets: a multivariate case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 307-322.
    5. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society.
    6. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-199, July.
    7. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    8. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    9. Ozer-Imer, Itir & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "An empirical analysis of currency volatilities during the recent global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 394-406.
    10. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2015. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis Versus Wavelet Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 575-611, December.
    11. Cotter, John & Longin, Francois, 2006. "Implied correlation from VaR," MPRA Paper 3506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cheung, Yan-Leung & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Chris C., 2007. "East Asian equity markets, financial crises, and the Japanese currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 138-152, March.
    13. Sewraj, Deeya & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2018. "Identifying contagion: A unifying approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-240.
    14. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2017. "Contagion of the eurozone debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 115-128.
    15. Shegorika Rajwani & Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Approach to Financial Contagion: A Study of Asian Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1339-1356, December.
    16. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    17. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Exploiting Spillovers to Forecast Crashes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(8), pages 936-955, December.
    18. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    19. Chen, Jing & Han, Qian & Ryu, Doojin & Tang, Jing, 2022. "Does the world smile together? A network analysis of global index option implied volatilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-500 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 2-17, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:9:y:2006:i:2:p:275-293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/recs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.