IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/pocoec/v32y2020i2p176-214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of regional fertility in Russia: a dynamic panel data analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ichiro Iwasaki
  • Kazuhiro Kumo

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the regional determinants of the fertility rate in Russia using panel data for the period of 2005–2015. The estimation results of a system GMM dynamic model revealed that economic growth, employment opportunity, favourable local business conditions, educational opportunity, quality of social infrastructure, and housing supply serve to increase the fertility rate in Russian regions, while the presence of a Slavic population, migration inflow, poverty and ecological risks tend to suppress it. Furthermore, we found that combinations of factors that strongly affect the reproductive behaviour of Russian women vary greatly among age groups and regions. To mitigate the declining trend of fertility in Russia, it is necessary to implement policies that take generational differences and regional heterogeneity into serious consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2020. "Determinants of regional fertility in Russia: a dynamic panel data analysis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 176-214, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:32:y:2020:i:2:p:176-214
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2019.1678333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14631377.2019.1678333
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14631377.2019.1678333?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Maurel, Mathilde & Meunier, Bogdan, 2016. "Firm entry and exit during a crisis period: Evidence from Russian regions," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 162-191.
    2. Ms. Irina Dolinskaya & Ms. Irina Tytell, 2002. "Transition and Regional Inequality in Russia: Reorganization or Procrastination?," IMF Working Papers 2002/169, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gentile, Michael, 2005. "Population Geography Perspectives on the Central Asian Republics," Arbetsrapport 2005:16, Institute for Futures Studies.
    4. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    5. Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2019. "J-Curve in Transition Economies: A Large Meta-analysis of the Determinants of Output Changes," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 149-191, March.
    6. Sunnee Billingsley, 2010. "The Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(2), pages 193-231, April.
    7. Richard Easterlin, 1966. "On the relation of economic factors to recent and projected fertility changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 131-153, March.
    8. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
    9. Larisa A. Popova, 2014. "The Results of the Modern Demographic Policy in Russia," International Journal of Regional Development, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 26-38, December.
    10. Tatiana L. Kharkova & Evgueny M. Andreev, 2000. "Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 211-233, September.
    11. Tatiana Karabchuk & Kazuhiro Kumo & Ekaterina Selezneva, 2017. "Demography of Russia," Studies in Economic Transition, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-51850-7, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    2. Iwasaki, Ichiro & 岩﨑, 一郎 & Kumo, Kazuhiro & 雲, 和広, 2020. "Regional Determinants of Marriage Rates in Russia: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," RRC Working Paper Series 85, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. KOMATSU Sho & MA Xinxin & SUZUKI Aya, 2022. "Influence of E-commerce on Birth Rate: Evidence from rural China based on county-level longitudinal data," Discussion papers 22101, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. João Plínio Juchem Neto & Bruno Paese, 2023. "An intersectoral migration and growth model with distinct population growth rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 413-428.
    5. KUMO, Kazuhiro & 雲, 和広, 2020. "Fertility in Russia: A Re-examination Using Microdata," CEI Working Paper Series 2020-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Ichiro Iwasaki & Yuko Adachi, 2024. "Legal Weakness, Investment Risks, and Distressed Acquisitions: Evidence from Russian Regions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(1), pages 1-69, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jessica Nisén & Sebastian Klüsener & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Aiva Jasilioniene & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Trude Lappegård & Peng Li & Pekka Martikainen & Karel Neels & Bernhard Riederer & Sask, 2021. "Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 263-295, March.
    2. KUMO, Kazuhiro & 雲, 和広, 2020. "Fertility in Russia: A Re-examination Using Microdata," CEI Working Paper Series 2020-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Jessica Nisén & Sebastian Klüsener & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Aiva Jasilioniene & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Trude Lappegård & Peng Li & Pekka Martikainen & Karel Neels & Bernhard Riederer & Sask, 2019. "Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Nisén, Jessica & Klüsener, Sebastian & Dahlberg, Johan & Dommermuth, Lars & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Lappegård, Trude & Li, Peng & Martikainen, Pekka & Neels, Karel & Riederer, Bern, 2020. "Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106201, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Bela Greskovits, 1999. "Consolidating Economic Reforms: the Hungarian Experience with Lessons for Poland," CASE-CEU Working Papers 0031, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    7. Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2017. "When the opportunity knocks: large structural shocks and gender wage gaps," GRAPE Working Papers 2, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    8. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Liili Abuladze & Luule Sakkeus & Sergei Zakharov, 2017. "Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(41), pages 1209-1254.
    9. Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2006. "An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960," NBER Working Papers 12796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Marcel Raab & Emanuela Struffolino, 2020. "The Heterogeneity of Partnership Trajectories to Childlessness in Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(1), pages 53-70, March.
    11. Steven Ruggles, 2015. "Patriarchy, Power, and Pay: The Transformation of American Families, 1800–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1797-1823, December.
    12. Bukvic, Rajko, 2010. "Foundations, Results and Perspectives of Transition: A Case of Serbia," Ekonomika, Journal for Economic Theory and Practice and Social Issues, Society of Economists Ekonomika, Nis, Serbia, vol. 56(4), December.
    13. Yang, Qing Gong & Temple, Paul, 2012. "Reform and competitive selection in China: An analysis of firm exits," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 286-299.
    14. Miss Catriona Purfield, 2003. "Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence From the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 2003/036, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Eilat, Yair & Zinnes, Clifford, 2002. "The Shadow Economy in Transition Countries: Friend or Foe? A Policy Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1254, July.
    16. Natálie Švarcová & Petr Švarc, 2009. "The Financial Impact of Government Policies on Families with Children in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 048-068, March.
    17. Svetlana Biryukova & Oxana Sinyavskaya & Irina Nurimanova, 2016. "Estimating effects of 2007 family policy changes on probability of second and subsequent births in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 68/SOC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    18. Tatiana Karabchuk, 2020. "Job Instability and Fertility Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: Does Labor Market Legislation Matter?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 688(1), pages 225-245, March.
    19. Natalie Nitsche & Anna Matysiak & Jan Bavel & Daniele Vignoli, 2018. "Partners’ Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1195-1232, August.
    20. Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: a dynamic panel analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-22, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:32:y:2020:i:2:p:176-214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CPCE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.