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Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries

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  • Matthieu Llorca
  • Srdjan Redzepagic

Abstract

This article aims to assess the sustainability of fiscal policies in a panel of eight EU New Member States, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. First, using panel data unit-root tests, econometric findings show that the variables public expenditure and revenue are not stationary. However, employing panel cointegration tests, it is found that government spending and revenue are cointegrated. This implies that fiscal policies in these countries are sustainable in the long run, i.e. they are consistent with inter-temporal budget balance in accordance with the present-value approach. Finally, these results are confirmed if we exclude the countries with sound public finances, namely the three Baltic States and Slovenia: we obtain the same conclusion with a panel comprising Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and the Slovak Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Llorca & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2008. "Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 159-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:20:y:2008:i:2:p:159-172
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370802018882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "The Baltics; Medium-Term Fiscal Issues Related to EU and NATO Accession," IMF Staff Country Reports 02/07, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
    3. Buiter, Willem, 2004. "To Purgatory and Beyond: When and How Should the Accession Countries from Central and Eastern Europe Become Full Members of EMU?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4342, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Berčič, Boštjan, 2007. "Fiscal Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries," MPRA Paper 122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "The Baltic Countries: Medium-Term Fiscal Issues Related to EU and NATO Accession," IMF Occasional Papers 2002/004, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tronzano, Marco, 2017. "Testing Fiscal Sustainability In The Transition Economies Of Eastern Europe: The Case Of Poland (1999-2015)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(1), pages 103-132.
    2. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    4. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Responses of Output to Declining Stock Values and Real Depreciation in Lituania," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(4), pages 429-437.
    5. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mihajlo Djukic & Drasko Nikolic, 2012. "Economic Integration and Analysis of External Debt Position of Serbia," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 512-528, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    7. Ksenija Dumicic & Berislav Zmuk & Iris Mihajlovic, 2016. "Panel analysis of internet booking of travel and holiday accommodation indicators," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 14(1), pages 23-38.
    8. Nicolae-Bogdan IANC & Adrian-Marius IONESCU, 2021. "Do Central and Eastern Countries benefit from ECB’s unconventional monetary policies?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2898, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Poanta, Dorina, 2011. "Central and East European Corporate Finance: Between Commonality and Heterogeneity," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-161, September.
    10. Owusu Benjamin, 2021. "Fiscal Sustainability Hypothesis Test in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Perspective," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 285-312, January.

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