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Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

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  • Martins Iyoboyi
  • Olarinde Muftau

Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP) in Nigeria over the period 1961-2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria's BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country's positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

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  • Martins Iyoboyi & Olarinde Muftau, 2014. "Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:doi:10.1080/23322039.2014.923323
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2014.923323
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alhaji Jibrilla Aliyu & Shehu Mohammed Tijjani & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Asymmetric cointegration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1045213-104, December.
    4. Sayed O. M. Timuno & Joel Hinaunye Eita & Lanouar Charfeddine, 2020. "Towards an effective fiscal stimulus: Evidence from Botswana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1790948-179, January.
    5. Sakiru Oladele AKINBODE & Oladapo FAPETU & Jayeola OLABISI & Olutunji Timothy OJO, 2019. "Impact Of Exchange Rate On Economic Growth In Nigeria (1981-2016): An Ardl Approach," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 4(2), pages 158-171.
    6. Emmanuel Uche & Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(1), pages 96-111, January.
    7. Tamer Rawashdeh & Mahmoud Al-Rdaydeh & Basem Hamouri, 2020. "The Effect of International Currency Crises on the Balance of Payments: Evidence From Jordan," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 275-284, October.
    8. Djamal Dekkiche & Yassine Mimouni & Soufyane Bouguetaia, 2022. "The Impact of the Exchange Rate on Balance of Payments in Algeria: An ARDL Model Approach," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 95-117, March.
    9. Masih, Mansur & AbdulKarim, Fatima, 2014. "Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate, exchange rate and prices: Nigeria as a case study," MPRA Paper 58240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Perekunah Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa & Solomon Olakojo & Mamello Nchake & Owen Nyang'oro & Edith Togba, 2016. "Nigeria: Should the Government Float or Devalue the Naira?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 247-263, September.

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