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The effect of risk on intertemporal choice

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  • Yan Sun
  • Shu Li

Abstract

The strong similarities between intertemporal and risky choice raised the possibility that risk and time delay were psychologically interchangeable in the way they influence preference. Consistent with the single-process view, several previous studies have indicated that introducing uncertainty to intertemporal choice could decrease the degree of discounting future rewards just as adding time delay to it. However, the opposite effect has been observed in other cases. The present study examined the role of risk in intertemporal choice using the choice titration procedure. The results of two experiments indicated that risk and time delay had opposite effects on the preference in intertemporal choices. That is, the external uncertainty increased the degree of discounting future, whereas the opposite is true for time delays. Thus, our results were unfriendly to the single-process theory. In addition, the present study demonstrated the presence of an immediacy effect as well as a magnitude effect in intertemporal choice regardless of whether or not the reward is certain.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Sun & Shu Li, 2010. "The effect of risk on intertemporal choice," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 805-820, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:13:y:2010:i:6:p:805-820
    DOI: 10.1080/13669871003606224
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    2. Viviana Ventre & Roberta Martino, 2022. "Quantification of Aversion to Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice through Subjective Perception of Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-16, November.
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    4. Lei Liu & Tingyong Feng & Jing Chen & Hong Li, 2013. "The Value of Emotion: How Does Episodic Prospection Modulate Delay Discounting?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-7, November.
    5. Jawwad Noor & Norio Takeoka, 2022. "Optimal Discounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 585-623, March.
    6. Hong-Yue Sun & Cheng-Ming Jiang, 2015. "Introducing money at any time can reduce discounting in intertemporal choices with rewards: An extension of the upfront money effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(6), pages 564-570, November.
    7. Cruz Rambaud, Salvador & Ortiz Fernández, Piedad & Parra Oller, Isabel María, 2023. "A systematic review of the main anomalies in intertemporal choice," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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