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Real Estate and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Macrovariables vs. Derived Factors

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  • Su‐Jane Chen
  • Cheng‐Ho Hsieh
  • Bradford D. Jordan

Abstract

Two empirical models are used to implement the arbitrage pricing theory: the factor loading model (FLM) and the macrovariable model (MVM). This study compares the ability of these two models to explain real estate returns using equity REIT returns as a proxy. Two tests are performed: a comparison of crosssectional adjusted‐R2's and the Davidson and Mackinnon test. The results show that while the two models perform equally well during the period 1974–1979, the MVM outperforms the FLM over the periods 1980–1985 and 1986–1991. In addition, both models suggest superior financial performance for EREITs relative to other investments in the market during the period 1980–1985.

Suggested Citation

  • Su‐Jane Chen & Cheng‐Ho Hsieh & Bradford D. Jordan, 1997. "Real Estate and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Macrovariables vs. Derived Factors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 506-523, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:25:y:1997:i:3:p:506-523
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00725
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell & Qi Zhang, 2007. "The Underlying Return‐Generating Factors for REIT Returns: An Application of Independent Component Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 569-598, December.
    2. Cauchie, Severine & Hoesli, Martin & Isakov, Dusan, 2004. "The determinants of stock returns in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 167-185.
    3. James Payne, 2003. "Shocks to macroeconomic state variables and the risk premium of REITs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 671-677.
    4. Urom, Christian & Anochiwa, Lasbrey & Yuni, Denis & Idume, Gabriel, 2019. "Asymmetric linkages among precious metals, global equity and bond yields: The role of volatility and business cycle factors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. Masud Alam, 2024. "Volatility in U.S. Housing Sector and the REIT Equity Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 505-544, October.
    6. Keith Elliott & Gianluca Marcato, 2011. "Alternative investments: return driving actors," ERES eres2011_151, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    7. Vitor Leone, 2011. "From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors on UK Listed Property Returns," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(1), pages 19-36, March.
    8. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
    9. Séverine CAUCHIE & Martin HOESLI, 2004. "The Integration of Securitized Real Estate and Financial Assets," FAME Research Paper Series rp111, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    10. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin & Milidonis, Andreas, 2018. "The cross-section of expected stock returns in the property/liability insurance industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 292-321.
    11. Su-Jane Chen & Chengho Hsieh & Timothy W. Vines & Shur-Nuaan Chiou, 1998. "Macroeconomic Variables, Firm-Specific Variables and Returns to REITs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 269-278.
    12. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "International Evidence of the Predictability of Prices of Securititised Real Estate Assets: Econometric Models versus Neural Networks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    14. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    15. Masud Alam, 2021. "Time Varying Risk in U.S. Housing Sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts Equity Return," Papers 2107.10455, arXiv.org.
    16. Coletta Cuono Massimo & Busato Francesco, 2019. "U.S. REITs: A Financial Economics Review as of 2018," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(2), pages 20-32, June.
    17. Michael Nwogugu, 2020. "Regret Theory And Asset Pricing Anomalies In Incomplete Markets With Dynamic Un-Aggregated Preferences," Papers 2005.01709, arXiv.org.
    18. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.
    19. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Yong-ki Lee, 2014. "The Dynamics of Appraisal Smoothing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 497-529, June.
    20. K.W. Chau & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2001. "Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 187-216.
    21. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Wai Leung, 2012. "Asymmetric Correlation and Volatility Dynamics among Stock, Bond, and Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 491-521, August.
    22. Vitor Leone, 2010. "From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors in the UK Commercial Property Returns," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2010/4, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    23. Cristina Balint, 2011. "Do The Macroeconomic Factors Influence The Romanian Equity Prices?," JOURNAL STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI NEGOTIA, Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Business.

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