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UK commercial property investment: time-series characteristics and modelling strategies

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  • Michael Ball
  • Maurizio Grilli

Abstract

Modelling of UK commercial property development has been a growth industry in recent years. This paper examines the time series characteristics of the data on commercial output and considers the fruitfulness of modelling strategies with respect to it. The models estimated here make sense, and highlight the importance changes in national income, property values and construction costs in determining changes in commercial output. However, several technical and theoretical reasons suggest that they are likely to have poor forecasting ability. One reason is the data on commercial output have a low volatility, while the orders data are of poor accuracy and so are a bad substitute. Doubt is expressed over whether future econometric models can improve on this situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ball & Maurizio Grilli, 1997. "UK commercial property investment: time-series characteristics and modelling strategies," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 279-296, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:14:y:1997:i:4:p:279-296
    DOI: 10.1080/095999197368537
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raymond Y.C. Tse & John Raftery, 2001. "The effects of money supply on construction flows," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 9-17, January.
    2. Nanda Nanthakumaran & Craig Watkins & Allison Orr, 2000. "Understanding Property Market Dynamics: Insights from Modelling the Supply-Side Adjustment Mechanism," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(4), pages 655-671, April.
    3. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Forecasting Models of Retail Rents," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(10), pages 1825-1839, October.
    4. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.

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