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Bubbles all the way down? Detecting and date-stamping bubble behaviours in NFT and DeFi markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yizhi Wang
  • Florian Horky
  • Lennart J. Baals
  • Brian M. Lucey
  • Samuel A. Vigne

Abstract

Amid surging market values and widespread regulatory discussion, NFT and DeFi markets are widely perceived as being simply speculative in nature. This paper detects the existence and dates of price bubbles in the NFT and DeFi markets by applying SADF and GSADF tests. We document that NFT and DeFi markets both exhibit speculative bubbles, with NFT bubbles being more recurrent and having higher average explosive magnitudes than DeFi bubbles. The price bubbles in the NFT and DeFi markets are highly correlated with market hype and with more general cryptocurrency market uncertainty. We do find periods where bubbles are not detected, suggesting that these markets do have some intrinsic value and should not be dismissed as simply bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Yizhi Wang & Florian Horky & Lennart J. Baals & Brian M. Lucey & Samuel A. Vigne, 2022. "Bubbles all the way down? Detecting and date-stamping bubble behaviours in NFT and DeFi markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 415-436, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:20:y:2022:i:4:p:415-436
    DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2022.2138161
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Shaoping & Feng, Hao & Gao, Da, 2023. "Testing for short explosive bubbles: A case of Brent oil futures price," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Gunay, Samet & Kaskaloglu, Kerem, 2022. "Does utilizing smart contracts induce a financial connectedness between Ethereum and non-fungible tokens?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, Khaled, 2024. "Global macroeconomic factors and the connectedness among NFTs and (un)conventional assets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Kong, Xiaolin & Ma, Chaoqun & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Baltas, Konstantinos & Narayan, Seema, 2024. "A comparative analysis of the price explosiveness in Bitcoin and forked coins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Yousaf, Imran & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The relationship between trading volume, volatility and returns of Non-Fungible Tokens: evidence from a quantile approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Horky, Florian & Rachel, Carolina & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2022. "Price determinants of non-fungible tokens in the digital art market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Elie Bouri & Matteo Foglia & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Return-Volatility Nexus in the Digital Asset Class: A Dynamic Multilayer Connectedness Analysis," Working Papers 202432, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Ghosh, Bikramaditya & Bouri, Elie & Wee, Jung Bum & Zulfiqar, Noshaba, 2023. "Return and volatility properties: Stylized facts from the universe of cryptocurrencies and NFTs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Yousaf, Imran & Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Umar, Muhammad & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Exploring volatility interconnections between AI tokens, AI stocks, and fossil fuel markets: evidence from time and frequency-based connectedness analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Wu, Zewen, 2024. "Are we in a bubble? Financial vulnerabilities in semiconductor, Web3, and genetic engineering markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 32-44.
    12. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Connectedness between DeFi, cryptocurrency, stock, and safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    14. Khreshna Syuhada & Venansius Tjahjono & Arief Hakim, 2023. "Dependent Metaverse Risk Forecasts with Heteroskedastic Models and Ensemble Learning," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Ali Çelik & Çağrı Ulu, 2023. "Testing the Price Bubbles in Cryptocurrencies using Sequential Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) Test Procedures: A Comparison for Before and After COVID-19," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 70(1), pages 1-15, March.
    16. Grobys, Klaus, 2024. "No reward—no effort: Will Bitcoin collapse near to the year 2140?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Dominik Metelski & Janusz Sobieraj, 2022. "Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Projects: A Study of Key Performance Indicators in Terms of DeFi Protocols’ Valuations," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, November.
    18. Ben Osman, Myriam & Galariotis, Emilios & Guesmi, Khaled & Hamdi, Haykel & Naoui, Kamel, 2024. "Are markets sentiment driving the price bubbles in the virtual?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 272-285.

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