IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v63y2024ics1544612324003246.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

No reward—no effort: Will Bitcoin collapse near to the year 2140?

Author

Listed:
  • Grobys, Klaus

Abstract

This paper explores whether the overall evolution of Bitcoin log-prices would manifest a log-period power-law singularity (LPPLS) signature, eventually resulting in the arrival of a finite-time singularity. Calibrating the LPPLS model using daily data on Bitcoin covering the 2011—2023 period, this study indeed finds evidence for a strong LPPLS signature suggesting the arrival of a spontaneous singularity in the year 2129. Further striking evidence suggests that Bitcoin will experience what we term a close-to-singularity-condition near to the year 2050—a remarkable coincidence with the recently documented arrival of a finite-time singularity in U.S. equities.

Suggested Citation

  • Grobys, Klaus, 2024. "No reward—no effort: Will Bitcoin collapse near to the year 2140?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324003246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324003246
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105294?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2021. "Bitcoin, currencies, and fragility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1249-1255, August.
    2. de la Horra, Luis P. & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Perote, Javier, 2019. "The drivers of Bitcoin demand: A short and long-run analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 21-34.
    3. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    4. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Real-time prediction of Bitcoin bubble crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    5. Grobys, Klaus & Junttila, Juha, 2021. "Speculation and lottery-like demand in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Klaus Grobys, 2021. "When the blockchain does not block: on hackings and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1267-1279, August.
    7. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2021. "Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility," Papers 2106.14204, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2021. "The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2663-2683, November.
    10. Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
    11. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    12. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the US equity market: Will the US equity market eventually collapse?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    14. Yizhi Wang & Florian Horky & Lennart J. Baals & Brian M. Lucey & Samuel A. Vigne, 2022. "Bubbles all the way down? Detecting and date-stamping bubble behaviours in NFT and DeFi markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 415-436, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chhatwani, Malvika & Parija, Arpit Kumar, 2023. "Who invests in cryptocurrency? The role of overconfidence among American investors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    3. Kong, Xiaolin & Ma, Chaoqun & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Baltas, Konstantinos & Narayan, Seema, 2024. "A comparative analysis of the price explosiveness in Bitcoin and forked coins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Elie Bouri & Matteo Foglia & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Return-Volatility Nexus in the Digital Asset Class: A Dynamic Multilayer Connectedness Analysis," Working Papers 202432, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Aliu, Florin, 2024. "Do infectious diseases explain Bitcoin price Fluctuations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the US equity market: Will the US equity market eventually collapse?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Karim, Muhammad Mahmudul & Ali, Md Hakim & Yarovaya, Larisa & Uddin, Md Hamid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "Return-volatility relationships in cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from asymmetric quantiles and non-linear ARDL approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Connectedness between DeFi, cryptocurrency, stock, and safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Ioana Raluca DIACONU, 2022. "Bitcoin: Medium of Exchange or Speculative Asset?," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(24), pages 72-82, November.
    11. Wang, Yi-Ran & Ma, Chao-Qun & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2022. "A model for CBDC audits based on blockchain technology: Learning from the DCEP," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    13. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Ajithakumari Vijayappan Nair Biju & Ann Susan Thomas, 2023. "Uncertainties and ambivalence in the crypto market: an urgent need for a regional crypto regulation," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-21, August.
    15. Luo, Di & Mishra, Tapas & Yarovaya, Larisa & Zhang, Zhuang, 2021. "Investing during a Fintech Revolution: Ambiguity and return risk in cryptocurrencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Grosjean, Nicolas & Huillet, Thierry, 2016. "Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 455(C), pages 27-37.
    17. Laurens Swinkels, 2023. "Empirical evidence on the ownership and liquidity of real estate tokens," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    18. Di Casola, Paola & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2023. "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies," Working Paper Series 2868, European Central Bank.
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Tran, Dang K., 2022. "Covid-19 impact on NFTs and major asset classes interrelations: Insights from the wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    20. Goodell, John W. & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Ruan, Junhu & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Malhotra, Nidhi, 2023. "Traditional assets, digital assets and renewable energy: Investigating connectedness during COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Bubble; Collapse; Expected value; Log-periodicity; Finite-time singularity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324003246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.