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On Mixture Double Autoregressive Time Series Models

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  • Guodong Li
  • Qianqian Zhu
  • Zhao Liu
  • Wai Keung Li

Abstract

This article proposes a mixture double autoregressive model by introducing the flexibility of mixture models to the double autoregressive model, a novel conditional heteroscedastic model recently proposed in the literature. To make it more flexible, the mixing proportions are further assumed to be time varying, and probabilistic properties including strict stationarity and higher order moments are derived. Inference tools including the maximum likelihood estimation, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for searching the estimator and an information criterion for model selection are carefully studied for the logistic mixture double autoregressive model, which has two components and is encountered more frequently in practice. Monte Carlo experiments give further support to the new models, and the analysis of an empirical example is also reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Guodong Li & Qianqian Zhu & Zhao Liu & Wai Keung Li, 2017. "On Mixture Double Autoregressive Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 306-317, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:2:p:306-317
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2015.1102735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shiqing Ling & Dong Li, 2008. "Asymptotic inference for a nonstationary double AR (1) model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 257-263.
    2. Guodong Li & Wai Keung Li, 2008. "Least absolute deviation estimation for fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 399-414.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Shiqing Ling, 2004. "Estimation and testing stationarity for double‐autoregressive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 63-78, February.
    5. Guodong Li & Wai Keung Li, 2005. "Diagnostic checking for time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity estimated by the least absolute deviation approach," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(3), pages 691-701, September.
    6. Guodong Li & Bo Guan & Wai Keung Li & Philip L. H. Yu, 2015. "Hysteretic autoregressive time series models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 102(3), pages 717-723.
    7. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 107-131, April.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai Yang & Qingqing Zhang & Xinyang Yu & Xiaogang Dong, 2023. "Bayesian inference for a mixture double autoregressive model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 77(2), pages 188-207, May.
    2. Zhu, Huafeng & Zhang, Xingfa & Liang, Xin & Li, Yuan, 2017. "On a vector double autoregressive model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 86-95.
    3. Li, Dong & Tao, Yuxin & Yang, Yaxing & Zhang, Rongmao, 2023. "Maximum likelihood estimation for α-stable double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    4. Wei, Honglei & Zhang, Hongfan & Jiang, Hui & Huang, Lei, 2022. "On the semi-varying coefficient dynamic panel data model with autocorrelated errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Guo, Shaojun & Li, Dong & Li, Muyi, 2019. "Strict stationarity testing and GLAD estimation of double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 319-337.
    6. Huan Gong & Dong Li, 2020. "On the three‐step non‐Gaussian quasi‐maximum likelihood estimation of heavy‐tailed double autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 883-891, November.
    7. Songhua Tan & Qianqian Zhu, 2022. "Asymmetric linear double autoregression," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 371-388, May.
    8. Blasques, Francisco & van Brummelen, Janneke & Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2024. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Non-Stationary Location Models with Mixture of Normal Distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).

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