IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlasa/v109y2014i508p1565-1580.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Space and Space-Time Directional Data Using Projected Gaussian Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Fangpo Wang
  • Alan E. Gelfand

Abstract

Directional data naturally arise in many scientific fields, such as oceanography (wave direction), meteorology (wind direction), and biology (animal movement direction). Our contribution is to develop a fully model-based approach to capture structured spatial dependence for modeling directional data at different spatial locations. We build a projected Gaussian spatial process, induced from an inline bivariate Gaussian spatial process. We discuss the properties of the projected Gaussian process and show how to fit this process as a model for data, using suitable latent variables, with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We also show how to implement spatial interpolation and conduct model comparison in this setting. Simulated examples are provided as proof of concept. A data application arises for modeling wave direction data in the Adriatic sea, off the coast of Italy. In fact, this directional data is available across time, requiring a spatio-temporal model for its analysis. We discuss and illustrate this extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangpo Wang & Alan E. Gelfand, 2014. "Modeling Space and Space-Time Directional Data Using Projected Gaussian Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(508), pages 1565-1580, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:109:y:2014:i:508:p:1565-1580
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2014.934454
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01621459.2014.934454
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01621459.2014.934454?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kato, Shogo & Jones, M. C., 2010. "A Family of Distributions on the Circle With Links to, and Applications Arising From, Möbius Transformation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 249-262.
    2. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    3. Shogo Kato, 2010. "A Markov process for circular data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(5), pages 655-672, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan Beran & Sucharita Ghosh, 2020. "Estimating the Mean Direction of Strongly Dependent Circular Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 210-228, March.
    2. Fangpo Wang & Anirban Bhattacharya & Alan E. Gelfand, 2018. "Process modeling for slope and aspect with application to elevation data maps," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(4), pages 749-772, December.
    3. Saralees Nadarajah & Yuanyuan Zhang, 2017. "Wrapped: An R package for circular data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Xu Gao & Babak Shahbaba & Hernando Ombao, 2018. "Modeling Binary Time Series Using Gaussian Processes with Application to Predicting Sleep States," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 35(3), pages 549-579, October.
    5. Jan Beran & Britta Steffens & Sucharita Ghosh, 2022. "On nonparametric regression for bivariate circular long-memory time series," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 29-52, February.
    6. Mastrantonio, Gianluca, 2018. "The joint projected normal and skew-normal: A distribution for poly-cylindrical data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 14-26.
    7. Arthur Pewsey & Eduardo García-Portugués, 2021. "Recent advances in directional statistics," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(1), pages 1-58, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toshihiro Abe & Hiroaki Ogata & Takayuki Shiohama & Hiroyuki Taniai, 2017. "Circular autocorrelation of stationary circular Markov processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 275-290, October.
    2. Azar, Pablo D. & Micali, Silvio, 2018. "Computational principal agent problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), May.
    3. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    4. Tobias Fissler & Yannick Hoga, 2024. "How to Compare Copula Forecasts?," Papers 2410.04165, arXiv.org.
    5. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
    6. Rubio, F.J. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Inference for grouped data with a truncated skew-Laplace distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3218-3231, December.
    7. Hwang, Eunju, 2022. "Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. R de Fondeville & A C Davison, 2018. "High-dimensional peaks-over-threshold inference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(3), pages 575-592.
    9. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-40.
    10. Domenico Piccolo & Rosaria Simone, 2019. "The class of cub models: statistical foundations, inferential issues and empirical evidence," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 389-435, September.
    11. Finn Lindgren, 2015. "Comments on: Comparing and selecting spatial predictors using local criteria," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(1), pages 35-44, March.
    12. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    13. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2023. "Forecasting with a panel Tobit model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 117-159, January.
    14. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    15. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
    16. Rafael Frongillo, 2022. "Quantum Information Elicitation," Papers 2203.07469, arXiv.org.
    17. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
    18. Peysakhovich, Alexander & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel, 2012. "A note on proper scoring rules and risk aversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 357-361.
    19. Ranadeep Daw & Christopher K. Wikle, 2023. "REDS: Random ensemble deep spatial prediction," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), February.
    20. Merkle, Edgar C. & Steyvers, Mark & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip E., 2017. "A neglected dimension of good forecasting judgment: The questions we choose also matter," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 817-832.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:109:y:2014:i:508:p:1565-1580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UASA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.