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Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland

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  • Enrico Celio
  • Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

Abstract

Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Celio & Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, 2016. "Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(11), pages 2079-2101, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:59:y:2016:i:11:p:2079-2101
    DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1120713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Holden, Petra B. & Ziervogel, Gina & Hoffman, M. Timm & New, Mark G., 2021. "Transition from subsistence grazing to nature-based recreation: A nuanced view of land abandonment in a mountain social-ecological system, southwestern Cape, South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Gebrekidan, B.H., 2018. "Modeling Farmers Intensi cation Decisions with a Bayesian Belief Network: The case of the Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277081, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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