IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v42y2015i3p589-602.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Infant mortality rates: time trends and fractional integration

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper examines the existence of time trends in the infant mortality rates in a number of countries in the twentieth century. We test for the presence of deterministic trends by adopting a linear model for the log-transformed data. Instead of assuming that the error term is a stationary I (0), or alternatively, a non-stationary I (1) process, we allow for the possibility of fractional integration and hence for a much greater degree of flexibility in the dynamic specification of the series. Indeed, once the linear trend is removed, all series appear to be I ( d ) with 0> d >1, implying long-range dependence. As expected, the time trend coefficients are significantly negative, although of a different magnitude from those obtained assuming integer orders of differentiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Infant mortality rates: time trends and fractional integration," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 589-602, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:3:p:589-602
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.980785
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2014.980785
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2014.980785?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    2. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
    3. Filmer, Deon & Pritchett, Lant, 1999. "The impact of public spending on health: does money matter?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 49(10), pages 1309-1323, November.
    4. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
    5. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    9. Ignacio N Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2007. "Efficient Wald Tests for Fractional Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 575-589, March.
    10. Elola, J. & Daponte, A. & Navarro, V., 1995. "Health indicators and the organization of health care systems in Western Europe," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 85(10), pages 1397-1401.
    11. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    12. Sudhir Anand & Martin Ravallion, 1993. "Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Public Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 133-150, Winter.
    13. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
    14. Park, Rolla Edward & Mitchell, Bridger M., 1980. "Estimating the autocorrelated error model with trended data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-201, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in Infant Mortality Rates," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 393-405, March.
    2. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2017. "Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 144-156.
    3. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Babatunde, Oluwagbenga T., 2021. "Testing Fractional Persistence and Nonlinearity in Infant Mortality Rates of Asia Countries," MPRA Paper 109370, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    3. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    4. Belbute, José, 2013. "Does final demand for energy in Portugal exhibit long memory?," MPRA Paper 45717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christian Fischer & Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1345-1359.
    6. Christian Fischer & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of Ge," Faculty Working Papers 15/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    7. Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Moreno, Antonio, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 580-604, November.
    8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations within the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8674, CESifo.
    10. Cuñado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2012. "Testing for persistent deviations of stock prices to dividends in the Nasdaq index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4675-4685.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Poza, Carlos, 2020. "High and low prices and the range in the European stock markets: A long-memory approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Bertrand Candelon & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Fractional integration and business cycle features," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 343-359, May.
    14. Belbute, José M. & Pereira, Alfredo M., 2020. "Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Monge, Manuel & Poza, Carlos & Borgia, Sofía, 2022. "A proposal of a suspicion of tax fraud indicator based on Google trends to foresee Spanish tax revenues," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1-12.
    16. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    17. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Zerbo, Eleazar, 2021. "GDP per capita IN SUB-SAHARAN Africa: A time series approach using long memory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-190.
    18. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
    19. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2002. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(3), pages 395-445, September.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1950, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:3:p:589-602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.