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Screening for prostate cancer using multivariate mixed-effects models

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  • Christopher H. Morrell
  • Larry J. Brant
  • Shan Sheng
  • E. Jeffrey Metter

Abstract

Using several variables known to be related to prostate cancer, a multivariate classification method is developed to predict the onset of clinical prostate cancer. A multivariate mixed-effects model is used to describe longitudinal changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA), a free testosterone index (FTI), and body mass index (BMI) before any clinical evidence of prostate cancer. The patterns of change in these three variables are allowed to vary depending on whether the subject develops prostate cancer or not and the severity of the prostate cancer at diagnosis. An application of Bayes’ theorem provides posterior probabilities that we use to predict whether an individual will develop prostate cancer and, if so, whether it is a high-risk or a low-risk cancer. The classification rule is applied sequentially one multivariate observation at a time until the subject is classified as a cancer case or until the last observation has been used. We perform the analyses using each of the three variables individually, combined together in pairs, and all three variables together in one analysis. We compare the classification results among the various analyses and a simulation study demonstrates how the sensitivity of prediction changes with respect to the number and type of variables used in the prediction process.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher H. Morrell & Larry J. Brant & Shan Sheng & E. Jeffrey Metter, 2012. "Screening for prostate cancer using multivariate mixed-effects models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 1151-1175, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:6:p:1151-1175
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.644523
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skates S. J & Pauler D. K & Jacobs I. J, 2001. "Screening Based on the Risk of Cancer Calculation From Bayesian Hierarchical Changepoint and Mixture Models of Longitudinal Markers," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 429-439, June.
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    5. Larry J. Brant & Shan L. Sheng & Christopher H. Morrell & Geert N. Verbeke & Emmanuel Lesaffre & H. Ballentine Carter, 2003. "Screening for prostate cancer by using random‐effects models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(1), pages 51-62, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Margaux Delporte & Steffen Fieuws & Geert Molenberghs & Geert Verbeke & Simeon Situma Wanyama & Elpis Hatziagorou & Christiane De Boeck, 2022. "A joint normal‐binary (probit) model," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(S1), pages 37-51, December.
    2. Carles Serrat & Montserrat Ru� & Carmen Armero & Xavier Piulachs & H�ctor Perpi��n & Anabel Forte & �lvaro P�ez & Guadalupe G�mez, 2015. "Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 1223-1239, June.
    3. Ian J C MacCormick & Bryan M Williams & Yalin Zheng & Kun Li & Baidaa Al-Bander & Silvester Czanner & Rob Cheeseman & Colin E Willoughby & Emery N Brown & George L Spaeth & Gabriela Czanner, 2019. "Accurate, fast, data efficient and interpretable glaucoma diagnosis with automated spatial analysis of the whole cup to disc profile," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, January.

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