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Early warning system of finance stress for India

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  • Anuradha Guru

Abstract

This paper develops a composite Financial Sector Stress Index (FSSI) for the Indian financial system as a whole by combining three sub-indices for currency markets, the banking sector and the stock market, to gauge the level of financial stress in the Indian financial system. Such a continuous-valued index can be used to track the varying magnitude and dynamics of financial stress in the country over time. The FSSI provides an ordinal measure of stress in the financial system. Changes in the FSSI are useful in assessing whether financial stress is rising or falling, and in ascertaining extreme events in the financial system. The paper, then, objectively identifies extreme stress periods in the financial system based on movements of the index. We recognise that such extreme/tail events pose special econometric challenges as they are rare events but with a big impact. Hence, we use a more robust and analytically sound technique of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to identify extreme events in the financial system. Once the extreme stress events are identified, we use a binary dependent variable model (logit model) to estimate the impact of various macroeconomic and financial variables on the probability of extreme stress in the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Anuradha Guru, 2016. "Early warning system of finance stress for India," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 273-300, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:30:y:2016:i:3:p:273-300
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2015.1102206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mpho Bosupeng, 2018. "Leading Indicators and Financial Crisis: A Multi-Sectoral Approach Using Signal Extraction," Journal of Empirical Studies, Conscientia Beam, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44.
    2. Bu, Ya & Du, Xin & Li, Hui & Yu, Xinghui & Wang, Yuting, 2023. "Research on the FinTech risk early warning based on the MS-VAR model: An empirical analysis in China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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