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Thirlwall's Law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities

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  • Erkin Bairam
  • Lawrence Ng

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of income elasticities used in Thirlwall's law to approximate a country's long-term growth and to see empirically how non-constancy will affect these predictions. For this purpose, three countries - Canada, New Zealand and the UK - are analysed, using annual time series data from 1973 to 1995. These three countries were chosen on the basis of their contrasting trade patterns. The results obtained are different for each country but they still suggest the predictive power of one of the two specifications of Thirlwall's law is good.

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  • Erkin Bairam & Lawrence Ng, 2001. "Thirlwall's Law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 287-303.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:15:y:2001:i:3:p:287-303
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170110052347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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