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A Reassessment Of Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth: Results From Panel Unit Root And Panel Cointegration Tests

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  • Dimitris Christopoulos
  • EFthymios Tsionas

Abstract

The paper reassesses the empirical evidence for Thirlwall's law in seven industrial countries by using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests including Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration tests. Current practice restricts attention to time series residual based cointegration tests, which are known to have low power and are subject to normalization problems. Since economic time series are typically short, it is desirable to exploit panel data in order to draw sharper inferences. The empirical results reveal that imports are cointegrated with terms of trade and income (although residual-based tests indicate the opposite). We find that, with the exception of Australia, Thirlwall's law holds. [C22, C23, O40, O57]

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Christopoulos & EFthymios Tsionas, 2003. "A Reassessment Of Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth: Results From Panel Unit Root And Panel Cointegration Tests," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 39-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:17:y:2003:i:3:p:39-54
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730300000003
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    Cited by:

    1. Polemis, Michael L. & Fotis, Panagiotis N., 2014. "The taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus: Evidence from both sides of the Atlantic," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 225-233.
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    4. Bineau, Yannick, 2008. "Équilibre extérieur et taux de change réel : apport du modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(3), pages 263-285, septembre.
    5. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208, March.
    7. Gouvea, Raphael Rocha & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2011. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation," MPRA Paper 29816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia — Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 4, pages 81-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2022. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: an application to the Kazakhstan’s economy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 745-767, December.
    10. Fotis, Panagiotis & Karkalakos, Sotiris & Asteriou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The relationship between energy demand and real GDP growth rate: The role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 69-84.
    11. Yongkul Won & Frank S.T. Hsiao & Doo Yong Yang, 2008. "FDI Inflows, Exports and Economic Growth in First and Second Generation ANIEs : Panel Data Causality Analyses," Trade Working Papers 21939, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. Panagiotis Fotis & Michael Polemis, 2018. "Sustainable development, environmental policy and renewable energy use: A dynamic panel data approach," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 726-740, November.
    13. Mohammed Al- Mahish, 2017. "Does Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model Hold in Saudi Arabia?," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Mowshumi Sharmin & Mohammad Tareque, 2020. "Sustainable Growth-Environment Nexus in the Context of Four Developing Asian Economies: A Panel Analysis," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 18(3 (Fall)), pages 237-256.
    15. Maja Kadievska-Vojnovic & Danica Unevska, 2007. "Price and Income Elasticities of Export and Import and Economic Growth in the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2007-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    16. Polemis, Michail & Fotis, Panagiotis, 2011. "The gasoline Industry in European Union and the USA," MPRA Paper 35097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Polemis, Michael L., 2016. "New evidence on the impact of structural reforms on electricity sector performance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 420-431.
    18. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    19. Polemis, Michael L. & Fotis, Panagiotis N., 2013. "Do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically in the euro zone area? Evidence from cointegrated panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 425-433.
    20. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "The Chaotic Attractor of Foreign Direct Investment — Why China? A Panel Data Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 3, pages 39-79, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    22. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.

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