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The Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher for U.K. Manufacturing Exports

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  • Landesmann, Michael
  • Snell, Andrew

Abstract

This article sets out to study whether the dramatic events that took place in the U.K. economy since 1979 can be shown to have had any effects on certain crucial parameters that determine the export performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector. A number of export models are examined over the post-1979 period and all reveal a certain amount of systematic parameter variation. In particular, estimates of the world income elasticity of demand for U.K. manufacturing exports show an upward drift. When this drift is explicitly modeled using a spline function approach to allow time varying parameters, the data do not reject the hypothesis that this income elasticity has risen from its traditional postwar value of around 0.7 to around unity in 1986. This model is applied to explain export performance of both aggregate U.K. manufacturing, as well as of individual manufacturing industries. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Landesmann, Michael & Snell, Andrew, 1989. "The Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher for U.K. Manufacturing Exports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:99:y:1989:i:394:p:1-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
    2. Michael Funke & Sean Holly, 1992. "The determinants of West German exports of manufactures: An integrated demand and supply approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 498-512, September.
    3. Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Innovation and export behaviour at the firm level," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 829-841, April.
    4. Erkin Bairam & Lawrence Ng, 2001. "Thirlwall's Law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 287-303.
    5. Anderton, Robert & Tewolde, Tadios, 2011. "The global financial crisis: trying to understand the global trade downturn and recovery," Working Paper Series 1370, European Central Bank.
    6. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    7. Mody, Ashoka & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1997. "Is there persistence in the growth of manufactured exports? Evidence from newly industrializing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 447-470, August.
    8. Alan King, 2001. "A Two-Regime Model of Exports: U.K. Manufactures, 1980–1996," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 75-94, January.
    9. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 1999. "Market structure and market shares in the car industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 531-544, December.

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