IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ginixx/v41y2015i1p26-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Following an Experienced Shepherd: How a Leader’s Tenure Affects the Outcome of International Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob Ausderan

Abstract

Previous research has shown that a leader’s preconflict tenure affects the likelihood of conflict occurrence, while conflict outcomes affect a leader’s postconflict tenure. I argue that a leader’s preconflict tenure should affect not only conflict occurrence but conflict outcomes as well, specifically by increasing a leader’s professional competence and increasing the likelihood that the state will emerge victorious from international crises. This effect should weaken as the constraints upon leaders’ behaviors increase and their competence becomes less important for policy outcomes. Using a bivariate probit model with selection and a dyadic data set on international crises experienced by 195 countries between 1950 and 2000, I find moderate-to-strong support for the hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Ausderan, 2015. "Following an Experienced Shepherd: How a Leader’s Tenure Affects the Outcome of International Crises," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 26-45, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:41:y:2015:i:1:p:26-45
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2015.964401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03050629.2015.964401
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/03050629.2015.964401?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Besley, Timothy & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2011. "Do Democracies Select More Educated Leaders?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 552-566, August.
    2. Gelpi, Christopher & Feaver, Peter D., 2002. "Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick? Veterans in the Political Elite and the American Use of Force," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 96(4), pages 779-793, December.
    3. Philip B. K. Potter, 2007. "Does Experience Matter?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(3), pages 351-378, June.
    4. Douglas Lemke & William Reed, 2001. "The Relevance of Politically Relevant Dyads," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(1), pages 126-144, February.
    5. Debs, Alexandre & Goemans, H.E., 2010. "Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 430-445, August.
    6. Sartori, Anne E., 2003. "An Estimator for Some Binary-Outcome Selection Models Without Exclusion Restrictions," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 111-138, April.
    7. Christopher Gelpi & Joseph M. Grieco, 2001. "Attracting Trouble," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(6), pages 794-817, December.
    8. Michael Horowitz & Rose McDermott & Allan C. Stam, 2005. "Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(5), pages 661-685, October.
    9. Philip Arena, 2008. "Success Breeds Success? War Outcomes, Domestic Opposition, and Elections," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(2), pages 136-151, April.
    10. Carter, David B. & Signorino, Curtis S., 2010. "Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, July.
    11. Fearon, James D., 1994. "Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 577-592, September.
    12. Gelpi, Christopher F. & Griesdorf, Michael, 2001. "Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918–94," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 633-647, September.
    13. Stephen L. Quackenbush, 2006. "Identifying Opportunity for Conflict: Politically Active Dyads," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(1), pages 37-51, February.
    14. Michael Colaresi, 2012. "A Boom with Review: How Retrospective Oversight Increases the Foreign Policy Ability of Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 671-689, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cali Mortenson Ellis & Michael C. Horowitz & Allan C. Stam, 2015. "Introducing the LEAD Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 718-741, August.
    2. Xiaojun Li & Dingding Chen, 2021. "Public opinion, international reputation, and audience costs in an authoritarian regime," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(5), pages 543-560, September.
    3. Raul Magni Berton & Sophie Panel, 2017. "Strategic gerontocracy: why nondemocratic systems produce older leaders," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 409-427, June.
    4. Matthew Hauenstein, 2020. "The conditional effect of audiences on credibility," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 422-436, May.
    5. Matthew DiLorenzo & Becca McBride & James Lee Ray, 2019. "Presidential political ambition and US foreign conflict behavior, 1816–2010," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 111-130, March.
    6. Daehee Bak, 2020. "Autocratic political cycle and international conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 259-279, May.
    7. Carlson Lisa J. & Dacey Raymond, 2016. "A Note on a Methodological Issue Pertaining to the Empirical Specification of the Probability of Crisis Initiation," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 97-104, January.
    8. Giacomo Chiozza, 2017. "Presidents on the cycle: Elections, audience costs, and coercive diplomacy," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 3-26, January.
    9. Yuleng Zeng, 2020. "Bluff to peace: How economic dependence promotes peace despite increasing deception and uncertainty," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 633-654, November.
    10. Philip B. K. Potter, 2007. "Does Experience Matter?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(3), pages 351-378, June.
    11. Adam, Antonis & Tsavou, Evi, 2020. "One strike and you’re out! Dictators’ fate in the aftermath of terrorism," MPRA Paper 103772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    12. Casey Crisman-Cox, 2022. "Democracy, reputation for resolve, and civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 382-394, May.
    13. David R. Andersen-Rodgers, 2015. "No table necessary? Foreign policy crisis management techniques in non-state actor-triggered crises," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 200-221, April.
    14. Jesse C. Johnson & Brett Ashley Leeds & Ahra Wu, 2015. "Capability, Credibility, and Extended General Deterrence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 309-336, March.
    15. Nakao, Keisuke, 2022. "Democratic Victory and War Duration: Why Are Democracies Less Likely to Win Long Wars?," MPRA Paper 112849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Sackey, Frank G., 2016. "Do political regime transitions in Africa Matter for Citizens’ Health Status," Working Papers 2072/267086, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    17. Jason Enia & Patrick James, 2015. "Regime Type, Peace, and Reciprocal Effects," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(2), pages 523-539, June.
    18. Daniel Hansen, 2023. "The democratic (dis)advantage: The conditional impact of democracy on credit risk and sovereign default," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 356-410, March.
    19. Gary Uzonyi & Matthew Wells, 2016. "Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 294-310, July.
    20. Menevis Cilizoglu & Navin A Bapat, 2020. "Economic coercion and the problem of sanctions-proofing," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 385-408, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:41:y:2015:i:1:p:26-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GINI20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.