IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjfi/v18y2012i8p709-735.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rating or no rating? That is the question: an empirical examination of UK companies

Author

Listed:
  • Eleimon Gonis
  • Salima Paul
  • Jon Tucker

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the main determinants of the rating likelihood of UK companies. We use a binary probit specification to model the main drivers of a firm's propensity to be rated. Using a sample of 245 non-financial UK companies over the period 1995--2006, representing up to 2872 firm years, the study establishes important differences in the financial profiles of rated and non-rated firms. The results of the rating likelihood models indicate that the decision to obtain a rating is driven by a company's financial risk, solvency, default risk, public debt issuance, R&D, and institutional ownership, thus identifying a wider range of determinants and extending the current literature. The study also finds that the rating decision can be modelled by means of a contemporaneous or predictive specification without any loss of efficiency or classification accuracy. This offers support to the argument that the rating process is fundamentally forward-looking.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleimon Gonis & Salima Paul & Jon Tucker, 2012. "Rating or no rating? That is the question: an empirical examination of UK companies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 709-735, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:18:y:2012:i:8:p:709-735
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2011.649215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1351847X.2011.649215
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1351847X.2011.649215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winnie P. H. Poon & Michael Firth, 2005. "Are Unsolicited Credit Ratings Lower? International Evidence From Bank Ratings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(9-10), pages 1741-1771.
    2. ., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 77-93, June.
    3. Moon, Choon-Geol & Stotsky, Janet G, 1993. "Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, Jan.-Marc.
    4. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    5. Dirk Czarnitzki & Kornelius Kraft, 2006. "R&D and Firm Performance in a Transition Economy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 481-496, November.
    6. Jennifer Altamuro & Rick Johnston & Shailendra (Shail) Pandit & Haiwen (Helen) Zhang, 2014. "Operating Leases and Credit Assessments," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 551-580, June.
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-783, June.
    8. Grier, Paul & Katz, Steven, 1976. "The Differential Effects of Bond Rating Changes among Industrial and Public Utility Bonds by Maturity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 226-239, April.
    9. Hill, Tim & Marquez, Leorey & O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William, 1994. "Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-15, June.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1389-1413 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gonzalez, F. & Haas, F. & Johannes, R. & Persson, M. & Toledo, L. & Violi, R. & Zins, C. & Wieland, M., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 53-76, June.
    12. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    13. Andrea Gamba & Alexander Triantis, 2008. "The Value of Financial Flexibility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2263-2296, October.
    14. Michael Doumpos & Fotios Pasiouras, 2005. "Developing and Testing Models for Replicating Credit Ratings: A Multicriteria Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 327-341, June.
    15. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    16. Winnie P. H. Poon & Michael Firth, 2005. "Are Unsolicited Credit Ratings Lower? International Evidence From Bank Ratings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(9‐10), pages 1741-1771, November.
    17. Gentry, James A & Whitford, David T & Newbold, Paul, 1988. "Predicting Industrial Bond Ratings with a Probit Model and Funds Flow Components," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 269-286, August.
    18. Ashbaugh-Skaife, Hollis & Collins, Daniel W. & LaFond, Ryan, 2006. "The effects of corporate governance on firms' credit ratings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 203-243, October.
    19. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    20. Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Real Effects of Debt Certification: Evidence from the Introduction of Bank Loan Ratings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1659-1691, April.
    21. Carlos A. Molina, 2005. "Are Firms Underleveraged? An Examination of the Effect of Leverage on Default Probabilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1427-1459, June.
    22. Eleimon Gonis & Peter Taylor, 2009. "Changing credit rating standards in the UK: empirical evidence from 1999 to 2004," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 213-225.
    23. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    24. Patrick Van Roy, 2005. "Is there a difference in treatment between solicited and unsolicited bank ratings and, if so, why?," Finance 0509012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2008. "Corporate governance and pay-for-performance: The impact of earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 357-373, February.
    26. Stephen Gray & Alexsander Mirkovic & Vanitha Ragunathan, 2006. "The Determinants of Credit Ratings: Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 333-354, December.
    27. Richard Followill & Terrence Martell, 1997. "Bond review and rating change announcements: An examination of informational value and market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(2), pages 75-82, June.
    28. repec:fth:pennfi:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Steiner, Manfred & Heinke, Volker G, 2001. "Event Study Concerning International Bond Price Effects of Credit Rating Actions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 139-157, April.
    30. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    31. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    32. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    33. Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.
    34. Ilia D. Dichev & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2001. "The Long‐Run Stock Returns Following Bond Ratings Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 173-203, February.
    35. Gonzalez, F. & Haas, F. & Johannes, R. & Persson, M. & Toledo, L. & Violi, R. & Zins, C. & Wieland, M., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 53-76, June.
    36. Poon, Winnie P. H., 2003. "Are unsolicited credit ratings biased downward?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 593-614, April.
    37. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    38. Mike Adams & Bruce Burton & Philip Hardwick, 2003. "The Determinants of Credit Ratings in the United Kingdom Insurance Industry," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3-4), pages 539-572.
    39. Neil Doherty & Richard Phillips, 2002. "Keeping up with the Joneses: Changing Rating Standards and the Buildup of Capital by U.S. Property-Liability Insurers," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 55-78, February.
    40. Hamer, Michelle M., 1983. "Failure prediction: Sensitivity of classification accuracy to alternative statistical methods and variable sets," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 289-307.
    41. Claudio A. Piga & Gianfranco Atzeni, 2007. "R&D Investment, Credit Rationing And Sample Selection," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 149-178, April.
    42. Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Credit Ratings and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1035-1072, June.
    43. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Kraft, Kornelius, 2004. "Innovation indicators and corporate credit ratings: evidence from German firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 377-384, March.
    44. Stephen Satchel & Wei Xia, 2006. "Analytic Models of the ROC Curve: Applications to Credit Rating Model Validation," Research Paper Series 181, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    45. Ramesh Sharda, 1994. "Neural Networks for the MS/OR Analyst: An Application Bibliography," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 116-130, April.
    46. Mike Adams & Bruce Burton & Philip Hardwick, 2003. "The Determinants of Credit Ratings in the United Kingdom Insurance Industry," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3‐4), pages 539-572, April.
    47. Lawrence J. White, 2001. "The Credit Rating Industry: An Industrial Organization Analysis," Working Papers 01-02, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    48. Beaver, William H. & Shakespeare, Catherine & Soliman, Mark T., 2006. "Differential properties in the ratings of certified versus non-certified bond-rating agencies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 303-334, December.
    49. Nayar, Nandkumar, 1993. "Asymmetric information, voluntary ratings and the Rating Agency of Malaysia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 369-380, December.
    50. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Cantor, Richard & Packer, Frank, 1997. "Differences of opinion and selection bias in the credit rating industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1395-1417, October.
    52. Horrigan, Jo, 1966. "Determination Of Long-Term Credit Standing With Financial Ratios," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 44-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abad, P. & Ferreras, R. & Robles, M.D., 2020. "Intra-industry transfer effects of credit risk news: Rated versus unrated rivals," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    2. Oluyomi A. Osobajo & Adeola E. Akintunde, 2019. "Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(5), pages 142-166, May.
    3. Van den Bogaerd, Machteld & Aerts, Walter, 2015. "Does media reputation affect properties of accounts payable?," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 19-29.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthies, Alexander B., 2013. "Empirical research on corporate credit-ratings: A literature review," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-003, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas Lagner & Dodozu Knyphausen‐Aufseß, 2012. "Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers to the Capital Market: Practical Implications of 40 Years of Research," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 157-202, August.
    5. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
    6. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang, Yu-Li & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2012, Bank of Finland.
    7. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang, Yu-Li & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 171-193.
    8. Jaspreet Kaur & Madhu Vij & Ajay Kumar Chauhan, 2023. "Signals influencing corporate credit ratings—a systematic literature review," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 50(1), pages 91-114, March.
    9. Thomas Mählmann, 2009. "Multiple Credit Ratings, Cost of Debt and Self‐Selection," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1228-1251, November.
    10. Ferri, Giovanni & Lacitignola, Punziana & Lee, Jeong Yeon, 2013. "Foreign ownership and the credibility of national rating agencies: Evidence from Korea," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 762-776.
    11. Ken Hung & Hui Wen Cheng & Shih-shen Chen & Ying-Chen Huang, 2013. "Factors that Affect Credit Rating: An Application of Ordered Probit Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 94-108, December.
    12. Thomas Mählmann, 2009. "Multiple Credit Ratings, Cost of Debt and Self-Selection," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1228-1251.
    13. Antonio, DI Cesare, 2006. "Do Market‐based Indicators Anticipate Rating Agencies? Evidence for International Banks," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(1), pages 121-150, February.
    14. Tao Wang, 2016. "Time-Varying Rating Standards and the Distorted Incentives of Credit Rating Agencies," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 21-39.
    15. Milidonis, Andreas, 2013. "Compensation incentives of credit rating agencies and predictability of changes in bond ratings and financial strength ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3716-3732.
    16. Gerald J. Lobo & Luc Paugam & Hervé Stolowy & Pierre Astolfi, 2017. "The Effect of Business and Financial Market Cycles on Credit Ratings: Evidence from the Last Two Decades," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(1), pages 59-93, March.
    17. Matthies, Alexander B., 2013. "Statistical properties and stability of ratings in a subset of US firms," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-002, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "Market expectations and the impact of credit rating on the IPOs of U.S. banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 587-610.
    19. Ruey‐Ching Hwang & K. F. Cheng & Cheng‐Few Lee, 2009. "On multiple‐class prediction of issuer credit ratings," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 535-550, September.
    20. Mattarocci, Gianluca, 2005. "Il rapporto tra impresa e agenzia di rating: la soluzione del multi-rating," MPRA Paper 4295, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2005.
    21. Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chung, Huimin & Chu, C.K., 2010. "Predicting issuer credit ratings using a semiparametric method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 120-137, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:18:y:2012:i:8:p:709-735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.