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Analytic Models of the ROC Curve: Applications to Credit Rating Model Validation

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Satchel
  • Wei Xia

    (Birbeck College, University of London)

Abstract

In this paper, the authors use the concept of the population ROC curve to build analytic models of ROC curves. Information about the population properties can be used to gain greater accuracy of estimation relative to the non-parametric methods currently in vogue. If used properly this is particularly helpful in some situations where the number of sick loans is rather small; a situation frequently met in periods of benign macro-economic background.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Satchel & Wei Xia, 2006. "Analytic Models of the ROC Curve: Applications to Credit Rating Model Validation," Research Paper Series 181, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:181
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-02/QFR-rp181.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Tasche, 2009. "Estimating discriminatory power and PD curves when the number of defaults is small," Papers 0905.3928, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
    2. Eduardo Acosta-González & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2014. "Forecasting Financial Failure of Firms via Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 133-157, February.
    3. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Janet Mitchell & Patrick Van Roy, 2007. "Failure prediction models : performance, disagreements, and internal rating systems," Working Paper Research 123, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Andrea Bedin & Monica Billio & Michele Costola & Loriana Pelizzon, 2019. "Credit Scoring in SME Asset-Backed Securities: An Italian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-28, May.
    6. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2018. "Confidence Bands for ROC Curves With Serially Dependent Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 115-130, January.
    7. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    8. Lis Bettina & Nessler Christian & Retzmann Jan, 2011. "The Proposition Value Of Corporate Ratings - A Reliability Testing Of Corporate Ratings By Applying Roc And Cap Techniques," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 60-90, August.
    9. Joël Bessis, 2009. "Risk Management in Banking," Post-Print hal-00494876, HAL.
    10. Lukasz Prorokowski, 2016. "Rank-order statistics for validating discriminative power of credit risk models," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 227-250.
    11. Elisa Ughetto & Andrea Vezzulli, 2011. "What role can mutual guarantee consortia play for financing innovation? A firm-level study for Italy," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 294-319.
    12. Eleimon Gonis & Salima Paul & Jon Tucker, 2012. "Rating or no rating? That is the question: an empirical examination of UK companies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 709-735, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    validation; credit analysis; rating model; ROC; Basel II;
    All these keywords.

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