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Explaining financial difficulties based on previous payment behavior, management background variables and financial ratios

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  • Peter Back

Abstract

This paper shows evidence that it is possible to explain financial difficulties in small and medium sized firms based on non-financial variables. The results indicate that the estimated model based on non-financial variables classified firms even better than the financial ratio model, especially when classifying bankrupt firms and firms with payment delays. The best overall classification was achieved using the model combining financial ratios and non-financial variables. The non-financial variables measuring the number of payment delays were statistically the most important. The main implication of the results is that non-financial variables embrace important information in attempts to explain financial difficulties, and this should be of interest given that payment behavior variables (payment delays and payment disturbances) may occur more frequently than the publication of intermittent financial statements.

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  • Peter Back, 2005. "Explaining financial difficulties based on previous payment behavior, management background variables and financial ratios," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 839-868.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:euract:v:14:y:2005:i:4:p:839-868
    DOI: 10.1080/09638180500141339
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariluz Mate‐Sánchez‐Val, 2021. "The impact of geographical positioning on agri‐food businesses' failure considering nonlinearities," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 612-628, July.
    2. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    3. Edward I. Altman & Marco Balzano & Alessandro Giannozzi & Stjepan Srhoj, 2023. "Revisiting SME default predictors: The Omega Score," Journal of Small Business Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(6), pages 2383-2417, November.
    4. Muñoz-Izquierdo, Nora & Segovia-Vargas, María Jesús & Camacho-Miñano, María-del-Mar & Pascual-Ezama, David, 2019. "Explaining the causes of business failure using audit report disclosures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 403-414.
    5. Oliver Lukason & Art Andresson, 2019. "Tax Arrears Versus Financial Ratios in Bankruptcy Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Hui Hu & Milind Sathye, 2015. "Predicting Financial Distress in the Hong Kong Growth Enterprises Market from the Perspective of Financial Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Keijo Kohv & Oliver Lukason, 2021. "What Best Predicts Corporate Bank Loan Defaults? An Analysis of Three Different Variable Domains," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, January.
    8. H. Ooghe & S. De Prijcker, 2006. "Failure process and causes of company bankruptcy: a typology," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/388, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Vahid Baradaran & Maryam Keshavarz, 2017. "System dynamics modelling of retailers' credit risk," International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 26(3), pages 380-396.
    10. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2018. "SMEs' near-death experiences. Do local banks extend a helping hand?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 47-65.
    11. Francesco Ciampi, 2018. "Using Prior Payment Behavior Variables for Small Enterprise Default Prediction Modelling," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(4), pages 1-57, March.
    12. Õie Renata Siimon & Oliver Lukason, 2021. "A Decision Support System for Corporate Tax Arrears Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    13. Vahid Baradaran & Maryam Keshavarz, 2015. "An integrated approach of system dynamics simulation and fuzzy inference system for retailers’ credit scoring," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 959-980, January.
    14. Erkki Laitinen, 2011. "Assessing viability of Finnish reorganization and bankruptcy firms," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 167-198, April.
    15. Maté-Sánchez-Val, Mariluz & López-Hernandez, Fernando & Rodriguez Fuentes, Christian Camilo, 2018. "Geographical factors and business failure: An empirical study from the Madrid metropolitan area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 275-283.
    16. Tudor Andrei RADULESCU & Carmen NISTOR, 2014. "What Causes Insolvency? A Study Regarding Big And Medium Romanian Enterprises Going Bankrupt In 2013," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6(4), pages 114-121, December.
    17. Oliver Lukason & Germo Valgenberg, 2021. "Failure Prediction in the Condition of Information Asymmetry: Tax Arrears as a Substitute When Financial Ratios Are Outdated," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, October.
    18. Onofrei, Mihaela & Lupu, Dan, 2014. "The modelling of forecasting the bankruptcy in Romania," MPRA Paper 95511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    20. Moya Fernández, Pablo José & Muñoz Rosas, Juan Francisco & Álvarez Verdejo, Encarnación, 2016. "The Capability Index when Some Assumptions are not Satisfied: Analysis and Empirical Comparisons/El índice de capacidad cuando no se cumplen algunas hipótesis de partida: Análisis y comparaciones empí," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 639-664, Agosto.
    21. Mehmet Karan & Aydın Ulucan & Mustafa Kaya, 2013. "Credit risk estimation using payment history data: a comparative study of Turkish retail stores," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(2), pages 479-494, March.
    22. Velia Gabriella Cenciarelli & Giulio Greco & Marco Allegrini, 2018. "External audit and bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 22(4), pages 863-890, December.

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