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Credit risk estimation using payment history data: a comparative study of Turkish retail stores

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  • Mehmet Karan
  • Aydın Ulucan
  • Mustafa Kaya

Abstract

Our paper presents a comparative study applying logistic regression and multiple criteria decision analysis tools to the operations of wholesalers to assess the credit risk of their retailers using payment history data and to cluster the risky customers by ranking their risk levels. Our sample comprises approximately 6,000 retailer customers and 600.000 transactions of one of the major wholesalers of Turkey. Our findings emphasize the importance of using payment history and some non-financial factors data for predicting the creditworthiness of a firm. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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  • Mehmet Karan & Aydın Ulucan & Mustafa Kaya, 2013. "Credit risk estimation using payment history data: a comparative study of Turkish retail stores," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(2), pages 479-494, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:21:y:2013:i:2:p:479-494
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-012-0242-y
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    Cited by:

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    2. Salihu, Armend & Shehu, Visar, 2020. "A Review of Algorithms for Credit Risk Analysis," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2020), Virtual Conference, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Virtual Conference, 10-12 September 2020, pages 134-146, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    3. Vahid Baradaran & Maryam Keshavarz, 2017. "System dynamics modelling of retailers' credit risk," International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 26(3), pages 380-396.
    4. Vahid Baradaran & Maryam Keshavarz, 2015. "An integrated approach of system dynamics simulation and fuzzy inference system for retailers’ credit scoring," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 959-980, January.
    5. Oliver Lukason & Germo Valgenberg, 2021. "Failure Prediction in the Condition of Information Asymmetry: Tax Arrears as a Substitute When Financial Ratios Are Outdated," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Ao Yu & Zhuoqiang Jia & Weike Zhang & Ke Deng & Francisco Herrera, 2020. "A Dynamic Credit Index System for TSMEs in China Using the Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, February.

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