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Chancing an interpretation: Slutsky's random cycles revisited

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  • Vincent Barnett

Abstract

This article examines Slutsky's 1927 paper 'The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes'. It provides an in-depth analysis of both the content and the reception of Slutsky's groundbreaking contribution by distinguishing between a 'real' and a 'statistical' interpretation of Slutsky's two related hypotheses, and also discusses the context of composition of the paper in the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It then places the 1927 paper in the context of Slutsky's other work in economics and statistics, and highlights some lines of influence that have emanated from it. Various latent ambiguities in Slutsky's ideas are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Barnett, 2006. "Chancing an interpretation: Slutsky's random cycles revisited," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 411-432.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eujhet:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:411-432
    DOI: 10.1080/09672560600875596
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    2. Barnett, Vincent, 2001. "Tugan-Baranovsky as a Pioneer of Trade Cycle Analysis," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 443-466, December.
    3. Lines, Marji, 1990. "Slutzky and Lucas: Random causes of the business cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 359-370, December.
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    6. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
    7. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2004. "Keynote Address to the 2003 HOPE Conference: My Keynesian Education," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 12-24, Supplemen.
    8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    9. Barnett, Vincent, 2004. "E. E. Slutsky: Mathematical Statistician, Economist, and Political Economist?," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 5-18, March.
    10. Vincent Barnett, 1996. "Trading cycles for change: S. A. Pervushin as an economist of the business cycle," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 1007-1025.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas C. Owen, 2013. "Measuring business cycles in the Russian Empire," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(3), pages 895-916, August.
    2. Carret, Vincent, 2021. "Fluctuations and growth in Ragnar Frisch’s rocking horse model," OSF Preprints 69nsg, Center for Open Science.
    3. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
    4. Sergey MALAKHOV, 2014. "Slutsky Equation and Negative Elasticity of Labor Supply: Behavioral Bias or Optimal Consumption-Leisure Choice?," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 80-84.
    5. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Morgan Kelly & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2012. "The waning of the little ice age," Working Papers 201211, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

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