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Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy

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  • Arnold Zellner
  • Jacques Kibambe Ngoie

Abstract

Using several variants of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM), see Zellner and Israilevich (2005) and Ngoie and Zellner (2010), this paper investigates how various tax rate reductions may help stimulate the U.S. economy while not adversely affecting aggregate U.S. debt. Variants of our MMM that are shown to fit past data and to perform well in forecasting experiments are employed to evaluate the effects of alternative tax policies. Using quarterly data, our one-sector MMM has been able to predict the 2008 downturn and the 2009Q3 upturn of the U.S. economy. Among other results, this study, using transfer and impulse response functions associated with our MMM, finds that permanent 5 percentage points cut in the personal income and corporate profits tax rates will cause the U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to rise by 3.0 percentage points with a standard error of 0.6 percentage points. Also, while this policy change leads to positive growth of the government sector, its share of total real GDP is slightly reduced. This is understandable since short run effects of tax cuts include the transfer of tax revenue from the government to the private sector. The private sector is allowed to manage a larger portion of its revenue, while government is forced to cut public spending on social programs with little growth enhancing effects. This broadens private economic activities overall. Further, these tax rate policy changes stimulate the growth of the federal tax base considerably, which helps to reduce annual budget deficits and the federal debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Zellner & Jacques Kibambe Ngoie, 2015. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 56-81, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:34:y:2015:i:1-2:p:56-81
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2014.944468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe & Zellner, Arnold, 2012. "The Use Of A Marshallian Macroeconomic Model For Policy Evaluation: Case Of South Africa," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 423-448, June.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, February.
    3. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226978901 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 1998. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," CUDARE Working Papers 198677, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dladla, Khumbuzile & Khobai, Hlalefang, 2018. "The impact of Taxation on Economic Growth in South Africa," MPRA Paper 86219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Bournakis, Ioannis & Mallick, Sushanta, 2018. "TFP estimation at firm level: The fiscal aspect of productivity convergence in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 579-590.

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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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