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The Marshallian macroeconomic model: A progress report

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  • Zellner, Arnold
  • Israilevich, Guillermo

Abstract

In this progress report, we first indicate the origins and early development of the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model and briefly review some of our past empirical forecasting experiments with the model. Then we present recently developed one-sector, two-sector and n-sector models of an economy that can be employed to explain past experience, predict future outcomes, and analyze policy problems. The results of simulation experiments with various versions of the model are provided to illustrate some of its dynamic properties that include “chaotic” features. Last, we present comments on planned future work with the model.
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  • Zellner, Arnold & Israilevich, Guillermo, 2005. "The Marshallian macroeconomic model: A progress report," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 627-645.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:4:p:627-645
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    1. Zellner, Arnold, 1999. "Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Approaches to Scientific Modeling and Inference in Economics and Econometrics," CUDARE Working Papers 198685, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    3. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 1998. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," CUDARE Working Papers 198677, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Arnold Zellner, 1997. "Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 825.
    5. Palm, Franz, 1976. "Testing the dynamic specification of an econometric model with an application to Belgian data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-289, October.
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    8. Zellner, Arnold & Chen, Bin, 2001. "Bayesian Modeling Of Economies And Data Requirements," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(5), pages 673-700, November.
    9. Palm, Franz, 1977. "On univariate time series methods and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 379-388, May.
    10. Zellner,Arnold, 2004. "Statistics, Econometrics and Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521540445, September.
    11. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
    12. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-414, June.
    13. Veloce, William & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Entry and empirical demand and supply analysis for competitive industries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 459-471.
    14. Zellner,Arnold & Palm,Franz C. (ed.), 2004. "The Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis Approach," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814072, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Kibambe Ngoie & Arnold Zellner, 2012. "Modeling and Policy Analysis for the U.S. Science Sector," Working Papers 201207, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Banerjee, Sanjibani & A. Barnett, William & A. Duzhak, Evgeniya & Gopalan, Ramu, 2011. "Bifurcation analysis of Zellner's Marshallian Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1577-1585, September.
    3. Arnold Zellner & Jacques Kibambe Ngoie, 2015. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 56-81, February.
    4. Arnold Zellner, 2009. "Comments on “Limits of Econometrics” by David Freedman," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(1), pages 28-32, April.
    5. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
    6. Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe, 2014. "Federal research spending and innovation in the U.S. economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 492-506.
    7. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.

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