IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1972.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dollar Appreciation and Manufacturing Employment and Output

Author

Listed:
  • William H. Branson
  • James P. Love

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the movements in the real exchange rate on employment and output in U.S. manufacturing industries. We use a simple model of supply and demand to estimate the elasticity of manufacturing employment and output with respect to the real exchange rate, at different levels of aggregation. The data are quarterly, covering two time periods -- 1963:1 to 1985:1 and 1972:1 to 1985:1. The employment estimates include 20 manufacturing sectors at the 2-digit SIC level, 125 sectors at the 3-digit SIC level, 176 sectors at the 4-digit SIC level. In addition, we disaggregate manufacturing employment regionally by the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The output estimates include 80 sectors of industrial production at different levels of aggregation. We check for consistency by considering the impact of aggregation among the 2-,3-, and 4-digit employment estimates, and by comparing the estimates for employment to those for output. We find that exchange rate movements have had important effects on the manufacturing sector, and in particular, the durable goods sector, including primary metals, fabricated metal products, and non-electrical machinery. Other sectors that suffer large employment loses when the dollar appreciates are stone, clay and glass products, transportation, instruments, textiles and apparel, chemicals, rubber and leather goods.

Suggested Citation

  • William H. Branson & James P. Love, 1986. "Dollar Appreciation and Manufacturing Employment and Output," NBER Working Papers 1972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1972
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1972.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grossman, Gene M., 1986. "Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3-4), pages 201-223, May.
    2. William H. Branson, 1985. "Causes of appreciation and volatility of the dollar," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Mi & Xu, Jianwei, 2017. "Firm-specific exchange rate shocks and employment adjustment: Evidence from China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Hua, Ping, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 335-353.
    3. Guzin Emel Akkus, 2016. "The Effects of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in the Manufacturing Industry of Turkey," Eurasian Journal of Social Sciences, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(1), pages 50-58.
    4. Garcia-Jimenez, Carlos I. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2010. "The Effects of Public Debt on Labor Demand in the United States," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56361, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Volz, 2020. "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 371-406, April.
    7. Stewart Ngandu, 2009. "The impact of exchange rate movements on employment: the economy-wide effect of a rand appreciation," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 111-129.
    8. Richard C. Marston & Guido Carli & Jacques Attali & John R. Petty & Robert Solomon, 1988. "Exchange Rate Coordination," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Cooperation, pages 79-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stewart Ngandu, 2008. "Exchange Rates And Employment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(s2), pages 205-221, August.
    10. Ping HUA, 2005. "Real exchange rate and employment in the manufacturing sector in China," Working Papers 200528, CERDI.
    11. J. David Richardson, 1988. "Exchange Rates and U.S. Auto Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 215-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing," 2013 Papers pca584, Job Market Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jae W. Chung, 1998. "Effects of U.S. Trade Remedy Law Enforcement under Uncertainty: The Case of Steel," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 151-159, July.
    2. Wacziarg, Romain & Wallack, Jessica Seddon, 2004. "Trade liberalization and intersectoral labor movements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 411-439, December.
    3. Erzan, Refik & Filiztekin, Alpay & Zenginobuz, Unal, 2003. "Customs Union with EU and the Impact of Foreign Competition on the Structure and Performance of Turkish Manufacturing Industry," MPRA Paper 381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Patrick Arni & Pether H. Egger & Katharina Erhardt & Matthias Gubler & Philip Sauré, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," Working Papers 2409, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    5. Attanasio, Orazio & Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Pavcnik, Nina, 2004. "Trade reforms and wage inequality in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 331-366, August.
    6. Spencer, Barbara J., 1988. "Capital subsidies and countervailing duties in oligopolistic industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 45-69, August.
    7. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Timothy Halliday & Daniel Lederman & Raymond Robertson, 2018. "Tracking wage inequality trends with prices and different trade models: evidence from Mexico," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 47-73, February.
    9. Ulaş Karakoç, 2018. "Industrial growth in interwar Egypt: first estimates, new insights," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 53-72.
    10. Campbell, Douglas L., 2013. "Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 51723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael & Weber, Andrea, 2003. "Sectoral Adjustment of Employment: The Impact of Outsourcing and Trade at the Micro Level," Economics Series 145, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    12. Christian Jaramillo & Jorge Tovar, 2006. "Trade And Labor Markets: Evidence From The Colombian Trade Liberalization Process," Documentos CEDE 3651, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Petia Topalova, 2010. "Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization: Evidence on Poverty from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-41, October.
    14. Richard C. Marston, 1989. "A Reevaluation of Exchange Rate Policy," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(s1), pages 45-51, February.
    15. Pavcnik, Nina & Goldberg, Pinelopi, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The dollar and real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-139, January.
    17. Russell Hillberry & Phillip McCalman, 2016. "Import dynamics and demands for protection," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 1125-1152, August.
    18. Martin S. Feldstein, 1986. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 355-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "The International Transmission and Effects of Fiscal Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 330-335, May.
    20. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.