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Applying Modern Portfolio Theory To The Analysis Of Terrorism. Computing The Set Of Attack Method Combinations From Which The Rational Terrorist Group Will Choose In Order To Maximise Injuries And Fatalities

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  • Peter Phillips

Abstract

In this paper, terrorism is analysed using the tools of modern portfolio theory. This approach permits the analysis of the returns that a terrorist group can expect from their activities as well as the risk they face. The analysis sheds new light on the nature of the terrorist group's (attack method) choice set and the efficiency properties of that set. If terrorist groups are, on average, more risk averse, the economist can expect the terrorist group to exhibit a bias towards bombing and armed attack. In addition, even the riskiest (from the terrorist group's point of view) combinations of attack methods have maximum expected returns of less than 70 injuries and fatalities per attack per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Phillips, 2009. "Applying Modern Portfolio Theory To The Analysis Of Terrorism. Computing The Set Of Attack Method Combinations From Which The Rational Terrorist Group Will Choose In Order To Maximise Injuries And Fat," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 193-213.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:193-213
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690801923124
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    Cited by:

    1. Phillips Peter J. & Pohl Gabriela, 2018. "The Deferral of Attacks: SP/A Theory as a Model of Terrorist Choice when Losses Are Inevitable," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 71-85, February.
    2. Samrat Chatterjee & Stephen C. Hora & Heather Rosoff, 2015. "Portfolio Analysis of Layered Security Measures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 459-475, March.
    3. Phillips Peter J, 2011. "Lone Wolf Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:3:n:9 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zhang, Jing & Zhuang, Jun, 2019. "Modeling a multi-target attacker-defender game with multiple attack types," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 465-475.
    6. Peter Phillips, 2011. "Terrorists’ Equilibrium Choices When No Attack Method is Riskless," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-141, June.
    7. Phillips Peter J, 2012. "The lone wolf terrorist: sprees of violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-3, December.

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