IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v39y2011i2p129-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorists’ Equilibrium Choices When No Attack Method is Riskless

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Phillips

Abstract

This paper builds on Phillips (Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 403–414, 2009 ) and enhances the NM expected utility analysis of terroristic behaviour by drawing on the fact that expected utility maximising behaviour in a setting where a terroristic group makes optimal decisions from a choice set containing combinations of attack methods can be analysed in terms of two moments (mean and variance) of the random payoffs associated with each attack method combination. This paper presents an equilibrium relationship between the expected payoffs of attack method combinations and the risk associated with those payoffs. This is an equilibrium model of choice under uncertainty when the behaviour of interest is the selection by a terroristic group of an optimal decision from a choice set containing attack method combinations. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Phillips, 2011. "Terrorists’ Equilibrium Choices When No Attack Method is Riskless," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-141, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:129-141
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. S. Feldstein, 1969. "Mean-Variance Analysis in the Theory of Liquidity Preference and Portfolio Selection," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(1), pages 5-12.
    2. Baron, David P, 1977. "On the Utility Theoretic Foundations of Mean-Variance Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1683-1697, December.
    3. Pape, Robert A., 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 343-361, August.
    4. Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
    5. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "How to Fight Terrorism: Alternatives to Deterrence," IEW - Working Papers 137, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    6. James Tobin, 1969. "Comment on Borch and Feldstein," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(1), pages 13-14.
    7. Landes, William M, 1978. "An Economic Study of U.S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1961-1976," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, April.
    8. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    9. Lintner, John, 1971. "The Effect of Short Selling and Margin Requirements in Perfect Capital Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1173-1195, December.
    10. K. Borch, 1969. "A Note on Uncertainty and Indifference Curves," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(1), pages 1-4.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-430, June.
    13. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    14. Joao Ricardo Faria & Daniel Arce, 2005. "Terror Support And Recruitment," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 263-273.
    15. Peter Phillips, 2005. "The 'Price' Of Terrorism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 403-414.
    16. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-317, June.
    17. Peter Phillips, 2009. "Applying Modern Portfolio Theory To The Analysis Of Terrorism. Computing The Set Of Attack Method Combinations From Which The Rational Terrorist Group Will Choose In Order To Maximise Injuries And Fat," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 193-213.
    18. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phillips Peter J, 2011. "Lone Wolf Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Phillips Peter J, 2011. "Lone Wolf Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Bigman, David, 1995. "Approximation methods for ranking risky investment alternatives," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, April.
    3. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1981. "Bliss Points in Mean-Variance Portfolio Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fatma Lajeri-Chaherli, 2016. "On The Concavity And Quasiconcavity Properties Of ( Σ , Μ ) Utility Functions," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 287-296, April.
    5. Valeri Zakamouline & Steen Koekebakker, 2009. "A Generalisation of the Mean†Variance Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 934-970, November.
    6. Merton, Robert C., 1993. "On the microeconomic theory of investment under uncertainty," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 601-669, Elsevier.
    7. Frank Schuhmacher & Hendrik Kohrs & Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Justifying Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection when Asset Returns Are Skewed," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7812-7824, December.
    8. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:3:n:9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Antonio Ruiz Porras, 2014. "Un modelo Tgarch con una distribución t de student asimétrica y las hipótesis de racionalidad de los inversionistas bursátiles en Latinoamérica," Archivos Revista Economía y Política., Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de Cuenca., vol. 19, pages 66-97, Enero.
    10. Haim Levy & Enrico G. De Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2012. "Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: a Contradiction or Coexistence?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 163-182, March.
    11. Berk, Jonathan B., 1997. "Necessary Conditions for the CAPM," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 245-257, March.
    12. Heller, Yuval & Schreiber, Amnon, 2020. "Short-term investments and indices of risk," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
    13. Merton, Robert, 1990. "Capital market theory and the pricing of financial securities," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 497-581, Elsevier.
    14. Haim Levy, 2010. "The CAPM is Alive and Well: A Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 43-71, January.
    15. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    16. Kent Smetters & Xingtan Zhang, 2013. "A Sharper Ratio: A General Measure for Correctly Ranking Non-Normal Investment Risks," NBER Working Papers 19500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Yalcin Tuncer, 1975. "Portfolio Analysis with Indirect Utility," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 19(1), pages 32-37, March.
    18. Yuval Heller & Amnon Schreiber, 2020. "Short-Term Investments and Indices of Risk," Papers 2005.06576, arXiv.org.
    19. Malavasi, Matteo & Ortobelli Lozza, Sergio & Trück, Stefan, 2021. "Second order of stochastic dominance efficiency vs mean variance efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1192-1206.
    20. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2021. "Islamist terrorism and the role of women," Discussion Paper Series 2021-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    21. Heuts, R.M.J., 1977. "Capital market models for portfolio selection (A revised version)," Other publications TiSEM d8385669-c29b-4bf1-ba60-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected utility; Terrorism; Mean; Variance; Equilibrium; H56; D74; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:129-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.