IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v19y2008i6p435-447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Defense Spending Really Promote Aggregate Output In The United States?

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey Smith
  • M. H. Tuttle

Abstract

Many studies have examined the relationship between defense spending and growth in real aggregate output with mixed results. Most recently, Atesoglu (2002) finds a positive relationship between defense spending and output. Capturing the error correction term as the long run adjustment parameter and including the long run adjustment in the relationship, we do not find evidence that defense spending promotes growth in real output. Instead, defense spending responds to aggregate income shocks. We re-estimated the relationship and dummied all US military conflicts with similar results concerning military spending's effect on output. Interestingly, we find trade-offs between defense and non-defense government spending during war time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Smith & M. H. Tuttle, 2008. "Does Defense Spending Really Promote Aggregate Output In The United States?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 435-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:435-447
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690701701950
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701701950
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10242690701701950?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sau‐Him Paul Lau & Chor‐Yiu Sin, 1997. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Time‐Series Properties and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(221), pages 125-135, June.
    2. Uk Heo, 1998. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 637-657, October.
    3. repec:bla:ecorec:v:73:y:1997:i:221:p:125-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Erdal Karagol & Serap Palaz, 2004. "Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 289-298.
    5. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
    6. Newman Kwadwo Kusi, 1994. "Economic Growth and Defense Spending in Developing Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 152-159, March.
    7. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
    8. Brumm, Harold J., 1997. "Military Spending, Government Disarray, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 827-838, October.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 2002. "Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in the United States--Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 55-60.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    12. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, September.
    13. Rock-Antoine Mehanna, 2004. "An Econometric Contribution to the U.S. Defense—Growth Nexus: Evidence from Error Correction Model," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 121-131, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Leitão, Nuno Carlos & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Should Portuguese economy invest in defense spending? A revisit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 805-815.
    2. J Paul Dunne, 2011. "Military Keynesianism: An Assessment," Working Papers 1106, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Uk Heo & John Bohte, 2012. "Who Pays for National Defense? Financing Defense Programs in the United States, 1947–2007," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(3), pages 413-438, June.
    4. Ologbenla Patrick, 2020. "Military Expenditure and Macroeconomic Perfromance – The Case of an Emerging Country," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 67-83, April.
    5. Alessandra Cepparulo & Paolo Pasimeni, 2024. "Defence Spending in the European Union," European Economy - Discussion Papers 199, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2024. "Military Spending and Economic Output: A Decomposition Analysis of the US Military Budget," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 243-263, February.
    7. Chiwei Su & Yingying Xu & Hsu Ling Chang & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Zhixin Liu, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Rolling Granger Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-582, July.
    8. Guo Ping & Alotaish Mohammed Saud M., 2017. "Revisiting the Causal Nexus between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: Time Series Analysis for Saudi Arabia," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 35-43, March.
    9. W. Robert J. Alexander, 2015. "The Keynesian IS-MR Model and Military Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 213-221, April.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Defence Spending Impede Economic Growth? Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 105-120, April.
    11. Innocent.U. Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Bartholomew.O.N. Okafor & Abubakar Yusuf & Lawrence.O. Ede & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh, 2021. "Military Outlay and Economic Growth: The Scenarios of Lake Chad Basin Countries of the Republic of Chad and Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 12-26.
    12. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Hsiao-Ping Chu, 2015. "Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 341-356, June.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Does Defence Spending Stimulate Economic Growth in India?," MPRA Paper 30880, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2011.
    14. Kollias, Christos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Guns, highways and economic growth in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 449-455.
    15. Eman Elish & Hossam Eldien Ahmed & Mostafa E. AboElsoud, 2023. "Military spending crowding out health and education spending: which views are valid in Egypt?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Ran Tao & Oana Ramona Glonț & Zheng-Zheng Li & Oana Ramona Lobonț & Adina Alexandra Guzun, 2020. "New Evidence for Romania Regarding Dynamic Causality between Military Expenditure and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-13, June.
    17. Ming Zhong & Tsangyao Chang & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Nexus between Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in the BRICS and the US: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Working Papers 201449, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Yingying Xu & Hsu Ling Chang & Chi Wei Su & Adelina Dumitrescu, 2018. "Guns for Butter? Empirical Evidence from China," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 809-820, November.
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2018. "No buck for the bang: revisiting the military-growth nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 639-653, November.
    21. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 2009. "Defense Spending And Aggregate Output In The United States," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 21-26.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2016. "Military expenditures, economic growth and spatial spillovers," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 87-104, February.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Defence Spending Impede Economic Growth? Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 105-120, April.
    3. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Non-Linearity In The Defence Expenditure - Economic Growth Relationship In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 537-555.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Does Defence Spending Stimulate Economic Growth in India?," MPRA Paper 30880, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2011.
    5. W. Robert J. Alexander, 2015. "The Keynesian IS-MR Model and Military Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 213-221, April.
    6. Chang, Hsin-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin Wei, 2011. "Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2416-2423.
    7. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Hsiao-Ping Chu, 2015. "Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 341-356, June.
    8. Ourania Dimitraki & Faek Menla Ali, 2015. "The Long-run Causal Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Revisited," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 311-326, June.
    9. Shin-Jen Tzeng & Ching-Chong Lai & Chun-Chieh Huang, 2008. "Does Military Expenditure Matter For Inflation And Economic Growth?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 471-478.
    10. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    11. Uk Heo & Min Ye, 2016. "Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 774-796, October.
    12. G. Jones & T. Kane, 2012. "U.S. Troops and Foreign Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 225-249, June.
    13. Pieroni, Luca & d'Agostino, Giorgio & Lorusso, Marco, 2008. "Can we declare military Keynesianism dead?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 675-691.
    14. McDonald Bruce D & Eger Robert J, 2010. "The Defense-Growth Relationship: An Economic Investigation into Post-Soviet States," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, September.
    15. Ünal Töngür & Adem Yavuz Elveren, 2016. "The impact of military spending and income inequality on economic growth in Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 433-452, June.
    16. Nikolaos Mylonidis, 2008. "Revisiting The Nexus Between Military Spending And Growth In The European Union," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 265-272.
    17. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    18. J Paul Dunne, Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2005. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Innocent.U. Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Bartholomew.O.N. Okafor & Abubakar Yusuf & Lawrence.O. Ede & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh, 2021. "Military Outlay and Economic Growth: The Scenarios of Lake Chad Basin Countries of the Republic of Chad and Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 12-26.
    20. Khalid Zaman, 2019. "Does higher military spending affect business regulatory and growth specific measures? Evidence from the group of seven (G-7) countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 323-348, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:435-447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.