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Modeling the effects of military tension on foreign trade: Some preliminary empirical findings from the Greek-Turkish rivalry

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  • Emmanuel Athanassiou
  • Christos Kollias

Abstract

In this paper we examine the effects of irreversibility on foreign trade in the case where there are two sources of uncertainty. The two sources considered in this paper are uncertainty arising from business risk and uncertainty arising from military tension. The resulting insights are then used to model the import markets of Greece and Turkey. These models are then empirically estimated, in order to ascertain, on the one hand whether there is evidence that irreversibility is indeed a factor on the supply side of these markets, and on the other hand, the direction of the incidence of military tension on foreign trade. An index of military tension is used for the two countries, based on the number of airspace violations by Turkish military aircraft of Greek airspace.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Athanassiou & Christos Kollias, 2002. "Modeling the effects of military tension on foreign trade: Some preliminary empirical findings from the Greek-Turkish rivalry," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 417-427.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:417-427
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690213506
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.
    2. Emmanuel Athanassiou, 2003. "The internal control constraint on compliance," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 413-424.
    3. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2010. "Financial vs human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race 10 years on," MPRA Paper 38505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Andreou Andreas S & Zombanakis George A, 2006. "The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 54-69, September.
    5. Cullen F. Goenner, 2011. "Simultaneity between Trade and Conflict: Endogenous Instruments of Mass Destruction," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 459-477, November.

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