IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v23y2005i6p621-630.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating general threshold traffic levels of typical build, operate, and transfer toll road projects in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Wibowo

Abstract

Applying the adjusted present value method enables the estimation of the general minimum traffic levels for the first year of operation required to make typical Indonesia's build, operate and transfer (BOT) toll road projects financially feasible. To determine the level, both average business risk as reflected by the opportunity cost of capital in the country's toll road industry, and project-specific risk as reflected by traffic risk in terms of ramp-up scale, ramp-up duration and catch-up extent are taken into consideration. Pessimistic and optimistic estimates reveal, respectively, that 18 000 vehicles per day (vhd) and 18 100 vhd are the minimum traffic levels under a low traffic risk scenario. This level increases particularly for optimistic estimate if traffic risk rises. To relax these high traffic requirements, the government should attempt to minimize traffic risk and average business risk or to provide financial supports. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrate that the threshold traffic levels are very sensitive to base tolls and construction cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Wibowo, 2005. "Estimating general threshold traffic levels of typical build, operate, and transfer toll road projects in Indonesia," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 621-630.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:23:y:2005:i:6:p:621-630
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190500040901
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446190500040901
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01446190500040901?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Estache, Antonio & Romero, Manuel & Strong, John, 2000. "The long and winding path to private financing and regulation of toll roads," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2387, The World Bank.
    2. Jeff Ruster, 1997. "A Retrospective on the Mexican Toll Road Program (1989-94)," World Bank Publications - Reports 11573, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abraham Park & Chen Yu Chang, 2013. "Impacts of Construction Events on the Project Equity Value of the Channel Tunnel Project," ERES eres2013_97, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Irawan Soerodjo, 2020. "Joint Venture as a Model of Cooperation in the Infrastructure Projects in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 396-401.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beatriz Marulanda & Miguel Montes, 2004. "Desarrollo de proyectos viales y aportes del estado en terrenos," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 49398, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Deborah C. Menezes & Kanchana N. Ruwanpura, 2018. "Roads and development = environment and energy?," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 18(1), pages 52-65, January.
    3. Marulanda, Beatriz & Montes, Miguel, 2004. "Desarrollo de proyectos viales y aportes del estado en terrenos," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3242, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Shanjiang Zhu & David Levinson & Lei Zhang, 2007. "An Agent-based Route Choice Model," Working Papers 000089, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    5. Asquer, Alberto, 2011. "Liberalization and regulatory reform of network industries: A comparative analysis of Italian public utilities," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 172-184.
    6. Beckers, Thorsten & Miksch, Jan, 2002. "Die Allokation des Verkehrsmengenrisikos bei Betreibermodellen für Straßeninfrastruktur: Theoretische Grundlagen und Anwendung auf das A-Modell," Discussion Papers 2002/10, Technische Universität Berlin, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Christopher Findlay, 2005. "Financing Public Infrastructure: Darrin Grimsey and Mervyn K Lewis, Public Private Partnerships: The Worldwide Revolution in Infrastructure Provision and Private Finance, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 200," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 271-274.
    8. Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2018. "The price of project finance loans for highways," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-172.
    9. Babatunde, Solomon Olusola & Perera, Srinath, 2017. "Analysis of traffic revenue risk factors in BOT road projects in developing countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 41-49.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:23:y:2005:i:6:p:621-630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.