IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/bindes/v44y2008i3p335-363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survey Of Recent Developments

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Ashcroft
  • David Cavanough

Abstract

The second half of 2008 is proving to be a time of unprecedented global volatility, and the sound performance of the Indonesian economy over the first half will be difficult to maintain. With growth for the year projected to remain around 6%, Indonesia is relatively well placed to face the challenges of the unfolding global financial crisis, but the risks to the outlook are increasing. The crisis has begun to impact directly, with trading on the Indonesian stock market suspended on 8 October after an alarming one-day fall of 10% in share prices. Sustained pressure on the currency since mid-August has also seen Bank Indonesia running down its sizable foreign exchange reserves in attempting to support the rupiah. The authorities are taking steps to relieve liquidity pressures in the financial system, but will also need to address medium-term issues of stability, especially in relation to inflation; interest rate increases have so far done little to contain prices. Although exports have remained surprisingly strong, rapid import growth has resulted in a small current account deficit. Growth of exports is likely to decelerate as demand in developed economies slows, putting further pressure on the balance of payments and the currency. The 2009 budget reflects the government's positive outlook, but the underlying assumptions about growth, inflation and interest rates seem rather optimistic. Tax revenue has been increasing strongly, allowing the government to allocate significant new spending to education, in particular; however the budget remains hostage to global oil prices, with energy subsidies still very large despite the unpopular recent increases in domestic fuel prices. Other issues likely to affect voting in the 2009 elections include scheduled electricity blackouts in Jakarta in response to demand continuing to outstrip supply; the government's apparent indifference to the fate of the victims of the Sidoarjo mud disaster; and its failure to make much impact on the level of poverty. Despite asking major donors for additional loans for budget support, the government has unveiled a new strategy for managing development partnerships. This will encourage smaller donors to operate through multi-donor arrangements and larger donors to use government systems for more of their programs—a signal that the government intends to shape its relationships with donors despite the global crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Ashcroft & David Cavanough, 2008. "Survey Of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 335-363.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:44:y:2008:i:3:p:335-363
    DOI: 10.1080/00074910802395310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00074910802395310
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00074910802395310?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2006. "Making the New Indonesia Work for the Poor," World Bank Publications - Reports 8172, The World Bank Group.
    2. Bambang-Heru Santosa & Heath McMichael, 2004. "Industrial Development In East Java: A Special Case?," Departmental Working Papers 2004-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter McCawley, 2010. "Infrastructure policy in Asian developing countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 24(1), pages 9-25, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hartono, Djoni & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2008. "The economy-wide impact of controlling energy consumption in Indonesia: An analysis using a Social Accounting Matrix framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1404-1419, April.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "Cameroon : Social Safety Nets," World Bank Publications - Reports 11912, The World Bank Group.
    3. Kazushi TAKAHASHI & Takayuki HIGASHIKATA & Kazunari TSUKADA, 2010. "The Short‐Term Poverty Impact Of Small‐Scale, Collateral‐Free Microcredit In Indonesia: A Matching Estimator Approach," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 48(1), pages 128-155, March.
    4. World Bank, 2012. "Addressing Vulnerability in East Asia : A Regional Study," World Bank Publications - Reports 11900, The World Bank Group.
    5. World Bank, 2011. "East Java Growth Diagnostic," World Bank Publications - Reports 27420, The World Bank Group.
    6. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2014. "Can Mistargeting Destroy Social Capital and Stimulate Crime? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Program in Indonesia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 381-415.
    7. Sirojuddin Arif & Muhammad Syukri & Rebecca Holmes & Vita Febriany, "undated". "Risiko, Kemiskinan, dan Kerentanan Gender: Studi Kasus Program Subsidi Pangan Raskin di Indonesia," Working Papers 3498, Publications Department.
    8. Sumarto, Sudarno & Bazzi, Samuel, 2011. "Social Protection in Indonesia:Past Experiences and Lessons for the Future," MPRA Paper 57893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Campagnolo, Lorenza & Chateau, Jean & Dellink, Rob, 2015. "Modelling of Distributional Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms: an Illustration with Indonesia," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 206853, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Arze del Granado, Javier & Fengler, Wolfgang & Ragatz, Andrew & Yavuz, Elif, 2007. "Investing in Indonesia’s Education: Allocation, Equity, and Efficiency of Public Expenditures," MPRA Paper 4372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sumarto, Sudarno & Widyanti (deceased), Wenefrida, 2008. "Multidimensional Poverty in Indonesia: Trends, Interventions and Lesson Learned," MPRA Paper 59468, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jun 2008.
    12. Julia E. Tobias & Sudarno Sumarto & Habib Moody, "undated". "Assessing the Political Impacts of a Conditional Cash Transfer: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in Indonesia," Working Papers 262, Publications Department.
    13. McCulloch, Neil & Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko, 2008. "Endowments, location or luck ? evaluating the determinants of sub-national growth in decentralized Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4769, The World Bank.
    14. C. Peter Timmer & David Dawe, 2007. "Managing Food Price Instability in Asia: A Macro Food Security Perspective," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform under the Doha Agenda: some key issues ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-16, March.
    16. D'Ambruoso, Lucia & Byass, Peter & Qomariyah, Siti Nurul & Ouédraogo, Moctar, 2010. "A lost cause? Extending verbal autopsy to investigate biomedical and socio-cultural causes of maternal death in Burkina Faso and Indonesia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(10), pages 1728-1738, November.
    17. Tohari, Achmad & Parsons, Christopher & Rammohan, Anu, 2019. "Targeting poverty under complementarities: Evidence from Indonesia's unified targeting system," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 127-144.
    18. Heath McMichael, 2009. "The Lapindo mudflow disaster: environmental, infrastructure and economic impact," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 73-83.
    19. World Bank, 2013. "Indonesia : Urban Poverty and Program Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 16301, The World Bank Group.
    20. Carunia Mulya Firdausy & Dwi Andayani Budisetyowati, 2022. "Variables, Dimensions, and Indicators Important to Develop the Multidimensional Poverty Line Measurement in Indonesia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 763-802, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:44:y:2008:i:3:p:335-363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.