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Mean reverting financial leverage: theory and evidence from Pakistan

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  • Tanveer Ahsan
  • Wang Man
  • Muhammad Azeem Qureshi

Abstract

Grounding concepts of the two competing theories of capital structure (trade-off theory, pecking order theory) are quite opposite to each other. Trade-off theory claims that there is an optimal (target) capital structure and firms try to achieve that optimal (target) point. Whereas pecking order theory argues that there is no optimal (target) capital structure but the firms follow a specific pattern of financing. Using the two competing theoretic frameworks, this study applies Fisher-type panel unit root test to an unbalanced panel data of 13 115 firm-year observations of nonfinancial firms listed on Karachi Stock Exchange Pakistan spread over 38 years (1973-2010). Overall panel test results, for short-term, long-term, as well as total leverage support trade-off financing behaviour while individual firm results do not. Individual firm results show that only 16% of the firms have short-term target, 25% of the firms have long-term target and 12% of the firms have total target leverage ratio. Further, industry results explain that most of the industries do have target leverage ratios and classification of data into profitable and lossmaking firm-year observations explains that profitable firms clearly follow trade-off financing behaviour while the results for lossmaking firms do not support trade-off financing behaviour. Our study indicates that it is important for the government to ensure policies to develop well-balanced financial markets and to improve accountability systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanveer Ahsan & Wang Man & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2016. "Mean reverting financial leverage: theory and evidence from Pakistan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 379-388, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:5:p:379-388
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1080802
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    Cited by:

    1. Tanveer Ahsan & Man Wang & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2016. "Mean Reverting Financial Leverage and Firm Life Cycle: Theory versus Evidence (Pakistan)," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 19-26, May.
    2. Razali Haron, 2018. "Firm Level, Ownership Concentration and Industry Level Determinants of Capital Structure in an Emerging Market: Indonesia Evidence," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(1), pages 127-151.
    3. Rana El Bahsh & Ali Alattar & Aziz N. Yusuf, 2018. "Firm, Industry and Country Level Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 175-190.
    4. Thao Nguyen & Min Bai & Greg Hou & Cameron Truong, 2021. "Speed of adjustment towards target leverage: evidence from a quantile regression analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5073-5109, December.
    5. Feng-Li Lin, 2020. "Do DJIA Firms Reflect Stationary Debt Ratios?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Ajid ur Rehman & Man Wang & Haoyang Yu, 2016. "Dynamics of financial leverage across firm life cycle in Chinese firms: an empirical investigation using dynamic panel data model," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Umeair Shahzad & Fukai Luo & Jing Liu & Mahmood Faisal & Hafeez Ullah, 2022. "The most consistent and reliable predictors of corporate financial choices in Pakistan: New evidence using BIC estimation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 237-257, January.
    8. Tanveer Ahsan & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, 2017. "The impact of financial liberalization on capital structure adjustment in Pakistan: a doubly censored modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4148-4160, September.

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