IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v48y2016i44p4238-4250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

News sentiment and overshooting of exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Feuerriegel
  • Georg Wolff
  • Dirk Neumann

Abstract

In a globalized world, the volume of international trade is based on both import and export prices, thereby making a country’s economy highly dependent on exchange rates. In order to study exchange rate movements, one frequently exploits the so-called Dornbusch overshooting model. However, the model is controversial from a theoretical point of view: it explains exchange rate movements by a number of fundamental variables but ignores how novel information in the form of news can enter the market. As a remedy, this article adjusts for information dissemination by performing a multivariate analysis to compare the classical overshooting model with an extended variant that includes news sentiment. Our results show that news sentiment has a substantial explanatory power of 11% of the exchange rate forecasting error variance. In addition, we also find statistical evidence that a shock in news sentiment may lead to overshooting.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Feuerriegel & Georg Wolff & Dirk Neumann, 2016. "News sentiment and overshooting of exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(44), pages 4238-4250, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:44:p:4238-4250
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1153796
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2016.1153796
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2016.1153796?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    2. Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch’s Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 2002/039, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Stefan Feuerriegel & Helmut Prendinger, 2018. "News-based trading strategies," Papers 1807.06824, arXiv.org.
    3. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Isard, 1983. "What's wrong with empirical exchange rate models: some critical issues and new directions," International Finance Discussion Papers 226, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jeffrey Goldstein & David Meerschwam, 1984. "International Portfolio Diversification: Short-Term Financial Assets and Gold," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 199-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    4. William H. Branson, 1983. "A Model of Exchange-Rate Determination with Policy Reaction: Evidence from Monthly Data," NBER Working Papers 1135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
    6. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    7. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    9. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    10. Cyril May & Greg Farrell & Jannie Rossouw, 2018. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 308-338, September.
    11. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
    12. Meilke, Karl D. & Coleman, Jonathan R., 1986. "An Evaluation of the Influence of Exchange Rates on the Canadian Red Meat Sector," Working Papers 244739, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "New Evidence on Real Exchange Rate Stationarity and Purchasing Power Parity in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 601-614, October.
    14. Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    15. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2020. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    17. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
    18. Fred R. Kaen & Evangelos O. Simos & George A. Hachey, 1984. "The Response Of Forward Exchange Rates To Interest Rate Forecasting Errors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(4), pages 281-290, December.
    19. Kevin Ross, 1991. "Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting, M1 Announcements and Exchange Rate Movements," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 177-187, Apr-Jun.
    20. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2007. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A New Insight into the UIP Puzzle through the Stationarity of Long Maturity Forward Rates," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 84, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:44:p:4238-4250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.