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The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium

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  • W. Heynderickx
  • J. Cariboni
  • W. Schoutens
  • B. Smits

Abstract

The study investigates empirically the relationship between the risk-neutral measure Q and the real-world measure P. We study the ratio between the risk-neutral and actual default intensities, which we call the coverage ratio or the relative credit risk premium. Actual default intensities are derived from rating agencies annual transition matrices, while risk-neutral default intensities are bootstrapped from CDS quotes of European corporates. We quantify the average risk premium and its changes over time. Compared to related literature, special attention is given to the effects of the recent financial and European sovereign crises. We find that average credit risk premia rose substantially and that post-crisis levels are still higher than those observed before the financial crisis. This observation is especially true for high-quality debt and if it persists, it will have an impact on corporates funding costs. The quantification and revision of risk premia contributes to the discussion of the credit spread puzzle and could give extra insights in valuation models that start from real-world estimates. Our work is furthermore important in the context of state aid assessment. The real economic value (REV) methodology, applied by the European Commission to evaluate impaired portfolios, is based on a long-term average risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Heynderickx & J. Cariboni & W. Schoutens & B. Smits, 2016. "The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4066-4081, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:42:p:4066-4081
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1150953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berg, Tobias, 2010. "The term structure of risk premia: new evidence from the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1165, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Broeders, Dirk & de Haan, Leo & Willem van den End, Jan, 2023. "How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    3. Carole Bernard & Adam Kolkiewicz & Junsen Tang, 2023. "Valuation of Reverse Mortgages with Default Risk Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 806-839, May.
    4. John A. Major, 2019. "Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 39-56, March.
    5. Marco Fruzzetti & Giulio Gariano & Gerardo Palazzo & Antonio Scalia, 2021. "From SMP to PEPP: a further look at the risk endogeneity of the Central Bank," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 11, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    6. Ola Hammarlid & Marta Leniec, 2018. "Credit Value Adjustment for Counterparties with Illiquid CDS," Papers 1806.07667, arXiv.org.
    7. Paula Morales-Bañuelos & Guillermo Fernández-Anaya, 2023. "Default Probabilities and the Credit Spread of Mexican Companies: The Modified Merton Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-30, October.
    8. Mariya Gubareva, 2019. "Weight of the Default Component of CDS Spreads: Avoiding Procyclicality in Credit Loss Provisioning Framework," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-19, July.
    9. Kanno, Masayasu, 2024. "Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Feng, Guohua & Wang, Chuan, 2018. "Why European banks are less profitable than U.S. banks: A decomposition approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-16.

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