IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1806.07667.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Value Adjustment for Counterparties with Illiquid CDS

Author

Listed:
  • Ola Hammarlid
  • Marta Leniec

Abstract

Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the difference between the value of the default-free and credit-risky derivative portfolio, which can be regarded as the cost of the credit hedge. Default probabilities are therefore needed, as input parameters to the valuation. When liquid CDS are available, then implied probabilities of default can be derived and used. However, in small markets, like the Nordic region of Europe, there are practically no CDS to use. We study the following problem: given that no liquid contracts written on the default event are available, choose a model for the default time and estimate the model parameters. We use the minimum variance hedge to show that we should use the real-world probabilities, first in a discrete time setting and later in the continuous time setting. We also argue that this approach should fulfil the requirements of IFRS 13, which means it could be used in accounting as well. We also present a method that can be used to estimate the real-world probabilities of default, making maximal use of market information (IFRS requirement).

Suggested Citation

  • Ola Hammarlid & Marta Leniec, 2018. "Credit Value Adjustment for Counterparties with Illiquid CDS," Papers 1806.07667, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1806.07667
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.07667
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Damiano Brigo & Mirela Predescu & Agostino Capponi, 2010. "Credit Default Swaps Liquidity modeling: A survey," Papers 1003.0889, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
    2. Bogdan Iftimie & Monique Jeanblanc & Thomas Lim & Hai-Nam Nguyen, 2013. "Optimization problem under change of regime of interest rate," Papers 1305.7309, arXiv.org.
    3. Blanchet-Scalliet, Christophette & El Karoui, Nicole & Martellini, Lionel, 2005. "Dynamic asset pricing theory with uncertain time-horizon," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1737-1764, October.
    4. Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas, 2004. "Estimating Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs," 2004 Meeting Papers 821, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. W. Heynderickx & J. Cariboni & W. Schoutens & B. Smits, 2016. "The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4066-4081, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virginia R. Young, 2007. "Pricing Life Insurance under Stochastic Mortality via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio: Theorems and Proofs," Papers 0705.1297, arXiv.org.
    2. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 326-340.
    3. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    4. Lionel Martellini & Branko Uroševi'{c}, 2006. "Static Mean-Variance Analysis with Uncertain Time Horizon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 955-964, June.
    5. Azizpour, Shahriar & Giesecke, Kay & Kim, Baeho, 2011. "Premia for correlated default risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1340-1357, August.
    6. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Explicit description of all deflators for market models under random horizon with applications to NFLVR," Papers 1803.10128, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    7. Kanno, Masayasu, 2024. "Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    9. Ludkovski, Michael & Young, Virginia R., 2008. "Indifference pricing of pure endowments and life annuities under stochastic hazard and interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 14-30, February.
    10. Michael Ludkovski & Qunying Shen, 2012. "European Option Pricing with Liquidity Shocks," Papers 1205.1007, arXiv.org.
    11. Damiano Brigo & Agostino Capponi & Andrea Pallavicini & Vasileios Papatheodorou, 2011. "Collateral Margining in Arbitrage-Free Counterparty Valuation Adjustment including Re-Hypotecation and Netting," Papers 1101.3926, arXiv.org.
    12. Tahir Choulli & Sina Yansori, 2018. "Log-optimal portfolio and num\'eraire portfolio for market models stopped at a random time," Papers 1810.12762, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    13. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    14. Campi, Luciano & Polbennikov, Simon & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2009. "Systematic equity-based credit risk: A CEV model with jump to default," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 93-108, January.
    15. Bayraktar, Erhan & Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S. & Young, Virginia R., 2009. "Valuation of mortality risk via the instantaneous Sharpe ratio: Applications to life annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 676-691, March.
    16. John A. Major, 2019. "Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 39-56, March.
    17. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2012. "Central Bank Swaps And International Dollar Illiquidity," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-20.
    18. Michael B. Walker, 2014. "Modelling the Bid and Ask Prices of Illiquid CDSs," Papers 1403.1509, arXiv.org.
    19. Christian Dehm & Thai Nguyen & Mitja Stadje, 2020. "Non-concave expected utility optimization with uncertain time horizon," Papers 2005.13831, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    20. Carole Bernard & Adam Kolkiewicz & Junsen Tang, 2023. "Valuation of Reverse Mortgages with Default Risk Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 806-839, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1806.07667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.