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The dynamics of Greek public debt - evidence from simultaneous and structural VAR models

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  • Nicholas Apergis
  • Arusha Cooray

Abstract

The goal of the present article was to investigate not only the dynamics of the Greek public debt, but also the appropriate measures required for achieving fiscal consolidation. The empirical estimation is carried out using a macroeconomic data set spanning the period 1980-2008 and both the three-stage least squares (3SLS) methodological approach on a theoretical model and the structural VAR methodology to perform forecast tests and to calibrate the future paths of the public debt variable up to 2020. The results suggest that only a restrictive fiscal policy that simultaneously increases government revenues and reduces government expenditure could permit the country to achieve debt sustainability. The results also suggest that debt sustainability can be achieved faster when tax revenue policies are intensified. The results are expected to have important implications to policymakers for designing effective macroeconomic policy in terms of achieving sustainable levels of public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2015. "The dynamics of Greek public debt - evidence from simultaneous and structural VAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(10), pages 967-980, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:10:p:967-980
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.985372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. S. M. Ali Abbas & Laura Blattner & Mark De Broeck & Ms. Asmaa A ElGanainy & Malin Hu, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies: A Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2014/162, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayoub Zeraibi & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente & Khurram Shehzad, 2020. "Examining the Asymmetric Nexus between Energy Consumption, Technological Innovation, and Economic Growth; Does Energy Consumption and Technology Boost Economic Development?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, October.

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