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Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies

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  • Ichiro Fukunaga
  • Takuji Komatsuzaki
  • Hideaki Matsuoka

Abstract

This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt‐to‐GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations suggest that 1 percentage point shock to the inflation rate can reduce the debt‐to‐GDP ratio by about 0.7 percentage points on average across countries, while the estimated impulse responses are a little larger and more persistent. Additional assumptions taking into account financial repression do not necessarily make these effects substantially larger. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce the public debt burden only marginally.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:40:y:2022:i:1:p:124-137
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12537
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    3. Busato, Francesco & Varlese, Monica & Ulloa Severino, Claudia, 2022. "Public debt heterogeneity at country level: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 113812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Karsten Staehr & Oļegs Tkačevs & Katri Urke, 2024. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(4), pages 1477-1504, November.
    5. Ampofo, Gideon Minua Kwaku & Jinhua, Cheng & Bosah, Philip Chukwunonso & Ayimadu, Edwin Twum & Senadzo, Patrick, 2021. "Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt in resource-rich countries:A panel data analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    7. Pratibha, S. & Sharma, Vishal & Krishna, M., 2024. "Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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