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Does Trust Promote Growth?

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Abstract

We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address endogeneity and assess whether the effect of trust on growth is causal. Examining more than forty regressors for nearly fifty countries, we show that trust exerts a positive effect on long-term growth and, based on the posterior inclusion probabilities, suggest that trust is an important driver of long-term growth. Our results also show that trust is key for growth in countries with a weak rule of law.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth, 2012. "Does Trust Promote Growth?," Working Papers IES 2012/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2012_09
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    4. Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2013. "Can trust effects on development be generalized? A response by quantile," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-390.
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    6. Nurullah Gur, 2015. "Trust and the wealth of nations," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
    7. Böhmecke-Schwafert, Moritz & García Moreno, Eduardo, 2023. "Exploring blockchain-based innovations for economic and sustainable development in the global south: A mixed-method approach based on web mining and topic modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Jordaan, Jacob A. & Dima, Bogdan & Goleț, Ionuț, 2016. "Do societal values influence financial development? New evidence on the effects of post materialism and institutions on stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 197-216.
    9. İ. Semih Akçomak & Hanna Müller-Zick, 2018. "Trust and inventive activity in Europe: causal, spatial and nonlinear forces," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(3), pages 529-568, May.
    10. Jacob A. Jordaan & Bogdan Dima, 2020. "Post Materialism and Comparative Economic Development: Do Institutions Act as Transmission Channel?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 148(2), pages 441-472, April.
    11. Christian Alexander Belabed & Mariya Hake, 2018. "Income inequality and trust in national governments in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Working Papers 222, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Velásquez, Daniel & Medina, Santiago & Yamada, Gustavo & Lavado, Pablo & Núñez, Miguel & Alatrista, Hugo & Morzan, Juandiego, 2018. "I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: The Effect of Crime News Coverage on Crime Perception and Trust," IZA Discussion Papers 12056, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Kazeem B. Ajide & Xuan V. Vo, 2021. "The hype of social capital in the finance‐growth nexus," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(3), November.
    14. Jesús Peiró-Palomino, 2016. "Social Capital and Economic Growth in Europe: Nonlinear Trends and Heterogeneous Regional Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 717-751, October.
    15. Michael Jetter & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2016. "Uncovering the determinants of corruption," Working Papers 2016-02, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    16. Markus Eller & Branimir Jovanovic & Thomas Scheiber, 2021. "What do people in CESEE think about public debt?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/21, pages 35-58.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trust; economic growth; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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