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Does trust promote growth?

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  • Horváth, Roman

Abstract

We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address endogeneity and assess whether the effect of trust on growth is causal. Examining more than forty regressors for nearly fifty countries, we show that trust exerts a positive effect on long-term growth and, based on the posterior inclusion probabilities, suggest that trust is an important driver of long-term growth. Our results also show that trust is key for growth in countries with a weak rule of law.

Suggested Citation

  • Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Does trust promote growth?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 777-788.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:41:y:2013:i:3:p:777-788
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2012.10.006
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    7. Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2013. "Can trust effects on development be generalized? A response by quantile," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-390.
    8. Jesús Peiró-Palomino, 2016. "Social Capital and Economic Growth in Europe: Nonlinear Trends and Heterogeneous Regional Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 717-751, October.
    9. Corbacho, Ana & Philipp, Julia & Ruiz-Vega, Mauricio, 2015. "Crime and Erosion of Trust: Evidence for Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 400-415.
    10. Michael Jetter & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2016. "Uncovering the determinants of corruption," Working Papers 2016-02, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    11. Nurullah Gur, 2015. "Trust and the wealth of nations," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
    12. Markus Eller & Branimir Jovanovic & Thomas Scheiber, 2021. "What do people in CESEE think about public debt?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/21, pages 35-58.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trust; Economic growth; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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