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Is the Greek budget deficit sustainable after all? Empirical evidence accounting for regime shifts

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  • Emmanouil Trachanas
  • Constantinos Katrakilidis

Abstract

This article re-examines the sustainability of the Greek budget deficit by using a formal framework based on the government's intertemporal budget constraint. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1960 to 2011 and employs traditional as well as more recent unit root and cointegration techniques that account for linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. Unlike previous studies, the evidence suggests that, allowing for structural breaks, the Greek budget deficit is unsustainable. The parameter after the second detected break reflects the structural deficiencies of the Greek economy.

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  • Emmanouil Trachanas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Is the Greek budget deficit sustainable after all? Empirical evidence accounting for regime shifts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(20), pages 2387-2397, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:20:p:2387-2397
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.902021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
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    1. Triches, Divanildo & Sleimann Bertussi, Luis Antônio, 2017. "Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
    2. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou, 2016. "A "litmus test" of Deficit Sustainability: The Case of the Greek Budget Deficit," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 65-73, August.
    3. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.

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