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Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a random walk?

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Estefania Mourelle

Abstract

In this article, we aim at modelling the long-run behaviour of the Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER) for a pool of African countries. Not much attention has been paid to this group of countries, in particular, to the existence of nonlinearities in the long-run path of such a variable. Controlling for two sources of nonlinearities, i.e. asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium and nonlinear deterministic trends allows us to gain some insight about the behaviour of the African REER. We find that these sources of nonlinearities help us to explain the apparent unit root behaviour found applying linear unit root tests for most of the countries.

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a random walk?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 243-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:2:p:243-258
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802467065
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(3), pages 15-38.
    3. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Nonlinear unit root tests revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-346.
    4. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    5. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Anchor currency and real exchange rate dynamics in the CFA Franc zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 722-732.
    6. S Coleman & J C Cuestas & E Mourelle, 2016. "Investigating the oil price-exchange rate nexus: evidence from Africa 1970-2004," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 53-79, September.
    7. Estefanía Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2022. "Investment dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe: Why doesn’t the sun always rise from the east?," Working Papers 2022/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    8. Fourie, Justin & Pretorius, Theuns & Harvey, Rhett & Henrico, Van Niekerk & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 74671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Juan carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in the EU15: Has anything changed?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2308-2314.
    10. Estefania Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Alberiko Gil‐alana, 2011. "Is There An Asymmetric Behaviour In African Inflation? A Non‐Linear Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 68-90, March.
    11. Yang Chen & Juan Cuestas & Paulo Regis, 2014. "Corporate Tax Convergence in Asian and Pacific Economies," TUT Economic Research Series 17, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    12. Shu‐kam Lee & Paul Kwok‐ching Shum & Kai‐yin Woo, 2024. "Tests of goods market integration between China and African BRI countries," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 223-246, June.
    13. Daniel Agyapong & Anokye M. Adam, 2012. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Implication for West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 215-228, October.
    14. Carlos P. Barros & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & João Faria, 2015. "Mozambique Metical Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence of Fractional Co-Integration in the USA and South African Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 569-575, December.
    15. Salah Nusair, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment of Asian real exchange rates," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 221-246, August.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustment and crisis: the case of EU real exchange rates," Working Papers 2019/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    17. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2018. "On the dynamics of sovereign debt in China: Sustainability and structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 356-359.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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